Unemployment is declared war – Newspaper Kommersant No. 191 (7392) of 10/14/2022
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The Ministry of Labor proposes to extend for the next year a number of state programs to support the labor market, including the organization of temporary and public works, as well as professional retraining. In total, the department plans to spend more than 27 billion rubles for these purposes, covering more than 300 thousand people with support measures. However, taking into account the impact on the labor market of partial mobilization, the risks of rising unemployment, which is at a historic low, are still small.
The Ministry of Labor proposed extending next year state employment support programs, including the organization of temporary and public works, as well as retraining of employees of industrial enterprises. This follows from the regulation.gov.ru portal. draft government decree “On approval of the Rules for the provision and distribution in 2023 of other interbudgetary transfers from the federal budget to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.”
Recall that in March of this year, after a number of foreign companies announced the closure of their business in the Russian Federation, the government unveiled the “Plan of priority actions to ensure the development of the Russian economy in the face of external sanctions pressure.” By Government Decree No. 409 of March 18, 2022 “On the implementation of certain measures aimed at reducing tensions in the labor market in 2022”, it was established that this year the Ministry of Labor will be able to organize a number of new events to support employment, as well as expand the coverage of existing ones. The first includes the organization of temporary and public works, the second is an increase in the number of places in state retraining programs created in 2018 as part of the Demography national project.
This year, as follows from the explanatory note of the Ministry of Labor, following the results of seven months, almost 12 thousand enterprises took part in new employment support programs. Contracts for participation in temporary work were concluded by 124 thousand people, for participation in public works – 88 thousand people. Another 234 companies took part in employee retraining programs, with 19,000 people enrolled in professional courses. It should be noted that the figures of the department are still lower than the forecast indicators indicated in the March government decree, since then the Ministry of Labor planned to cover more than 500 thousand Russians with temporary jobs, another 300 thousand with public jobs. However, the low demand for employment support measures is obviously due to the low level unemployment – despite various forecasts of its growth, in the spring it fell to a historic low and so far remains at this level. In August, the number of unemployed in Russia amounted to 3.8%, or 2.8 million people.
Nevertheless, according to the Ministry of Labor, risks for the labor market are possible next year, so the ministry proposes to extend the launched employment support programs. In total, they are designed for 383 thousand people – at the first stage they will cover 176 thousand people. Of these, the agency proposes to take 123,000 with temporary jobs, 40,000 with public jobs, and 12,000 people will be able to take retraining courses. Federal budget spending on programs during the year will amount to more than 27 billion rubles, at the first stage – 13.5 billion rubles. As the Ministry of Labor points out in an explanatory note, referring to the protocol of July 15, the agency’s proposal to allocate these funds to support the labor market has already been approved by Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova.
It should be noted that although the draft forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2025 from the Ministry of Economy assumes an increase in the unemployment rate next year to 5.2%, it was made in August this year and does not take into account how partial mobilization will affect the labor market of the Russian Federation. Let us remind you that, according to the Ministry of Defense, it should affect about 300 thousand men of working age – while the number of additional unemployed next year was estimated by the Ministry of Economy at 500-700 thousand people.
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