Ukrainian grain does without initiative – Kommersant

The European Commission should extend the ban on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to the countries of Eastern Europe, which expires on September 15, Janusz Wojciechowski, European Commissioner for Agriculture, said yesterday. In his opinion, the restrictions should be in place until at least the end of 2023. Recall that the ban on the import of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds from Ukraine to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, bordering with it, was introduced in May – since February, the countries have complained about the many times increased imports of agricultural products from Ukraine after the start of the military operation of the Russian Federation, which posed a threat to local farmers (see Kommersant on February 2).

It should be noted that the transit of grain through the states of Eastern Europe to other countries is not affected by the current restrictions. Before the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17, about 60% of Ukrainian agricultural products were exported through the so-called solidarity paths (land and river routes created by the EC). Now the European Union is ready to export almost all Ukrainian grain through its territories – according to Mr. Voitsekhovsky, for this, about 4 million tons should be exported per month along the “ways of solidarity”. So far, it has been possible to export such a volume of grain along these routes only once, in November 2022 (see chart). In April, 2.1 million tons of agricultural products were exported through Europe, in May – 3.4 million tons, in June – 3 million tons.

Since June, representatives of Ukraine and neighboring countries have been working on expanding transit within the framework of a working group headed by EC Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis. Special attention is paid to optimizing navigation along one of the key export channels – the Danube: a plan to increase exports is being developed with the support of the United States. So far, it is difficult to assess the results of the joint efforts of the countries, since there is no data on the volume of Ukrainian grain exports in July and August.

However, given the reduction in grain production in Ukraine caused by the military operation of the Russian Federation, the country will still be able to close its export needs with the current infrastructure (see Kommersant of August 21). Recall, as follows from the USDA forecast, exports of corn from Ukraine in 2023/24 agricultural year will decrease to 19.5 million tons (28 million tons a year earlier), wheat – to 10.5 million tons (from 16.8 million tons).

Christina Borovikova