Generative AI primarily threatens office workers

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) primarily threatens office workers, states the report “Generative AI and Jobs”, published yesterday by the International Labor Organization (ILO). This technology can completely replace more than 25% of tasks and partially – more than 50%. In other occupational categories, and especially among executives, professionals, and technicians, only a small proportion of tasks are considered high-risk. In general, most jobs can only be partially automated, and are more likely to be supplemented rather than replaced by the latest wave of generative AI, the ILO notes.

Generative AI has the greatest impact on office work, with almost a quarter of tasks considered highly affected by the spread of AI, and more than half as moderately affected, according to an ILO study. At the same time, in other areas, especially among managers, professionals and technical specialists, only a small part of the tasks are in the zone of high “risk” of the applicability of the new technology, with an average probability only a quarter of their work can be automated.

According to the study, most jobs and industries can only be partially automated with current AI technologies. These workers are most likely to be augmented rather than replaced by the latest wave of generative AI, the best-known example of which is ChatGPT. At the same time, even in developed countries with high income levels, the “risk” of automation affects only 5.5% of total employment, while in poor countries only about 0.4% of jobs fall under it.

“While it is impossible to predict how generative AI will develop further, the current capabilities and future potential of this technology are central to discussions about its impact on jobs,” the organization says in a report. The conclusions of the ILO study are partially consistent with the conclusions of a study by economists at the American bank Goldman Sachs (GS), dedicated to the possible consequences of the spread of generative AI for the economies and labor markets of developed countries and around the world (see more “Kommersant-Online” dated March 28). According to GS, generative AI poses the greatest risks for office workers in administrative positions, as well as for legal professionals. The authors of the report, however, believe that in the US and Europe, the impact of AI will be felt by about 63% of the entire workforce. The remaining 30% of employees, who are mainly engaged in physical labor or work outside the offices, are unlikely to be able to experience this technology, although some aspects of their work can be automated.

Note that with regard to the situation in the Russian Federation, according to the preprint of the work of two key labor market researchers at the Higher School of Economics, only 11% of Russian employees can lose their jobs due to automation. The low risk of widespread replacement of workers by robots is due to the fact that most Russian professions are focused on solving non-routine tasks that are difficult to automate. A relatively significant risk of job loss exists only for office workers, as well as those employed in the manufacturing industry and in transport, scientists noted (see Kommersant dated June 27, 2022).

Venera Petrova