Türkiye and Greece consider discussing normalization of relations

Turkey and Greece have agreed to “reset” bilateral relations and resume negotiations to resolve all disputes that have accumulated in recent years, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said July 13 in an interview with Kathimerini.

In May 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suspended bilateral contacts after he accused the Greek authorities of pressuring the US to block the sale of American F-16 fighter jets to the Turkish military. Despite the fact that Athens and Ankara are members of NATO, the parties have been arguing over the islands in the Aegean Sea and the Cyprus problem for several decades.

Previously, recently re-elected Erdogan and Mitsotakis (the first after winning the second round of presidential elections at the end of May, the second after the repeated parliamentary elections at the end of June) held talks on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius on 12 July. There, the heads of state agreed to “activate several channels of communication” between the governments of the two countries. “It is beneficial for both countries that the positive climate that has developed in bilateral relations in recent months has continuity and consistency,” the official website of the Greek prime minister says.

On the same day, the Liaison Office of the Turkish Presidential Administration reported that the leaders agreed on the work of the High-Level Cooperation Council in Thessaloniki, which is scheduled for autumn. The meeting of the Council at the level of the governments of the two countries was first held in 2010. But since 2016, due to the growth of political differences, these meetings were interrupted.

But the actual normalization of Greek-Turkish relations began earlier – after Athens was among the first to send a rescue team to Turkey to deal with the consequences of the February earthquake in the south-east of the country, which killed more than 50,000 people. The Greek foreign minister at the time, Nikos Dendias, flew to Ankara, becoming the first European minister to visit Turkey since the disaster. During negotiations with Turkish officials, he called for the elimination of differences between Turkey, the European Union and the United States: “Athens does not have any strategic benefits from Ankara’s conflict with the EU and US authorities.” In addition, Dendias added that cooperation with the Turkish authorities to eliminate the consequences of the earthquake “brought a lot of changes in the psychology” of Greek-Turkish relations.

The bone of contention between Turkey and Greece is the long-standing dispute over the delimitation of territorial waters in the Aegean Sea: both countries currently define their width as 6 nautical miles (11 km). Most of the Aegean Islands, except for Gokceada and Bozcaada, belong to Greece, and a number of large Greek islands are located in close proximity to the mainland borders of Turkey. This does not allow Ankara to expand either sea or air zones of influence.

At the same time, Athens claims the right to extend the borders to 12 miles, referring to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which causes resistance from the Turkish authorities. On the other hand, Turkey has not signed the UNCLOS convention and periodically threatens Greece with war if it expands its territorial waters. In addition, Erdogan demands an end to the militarization of the islands in the Aegean by the Greeks.

All these disagreements almost led to an armed clash in 2020 after the Turkish research vessel Oruç Reis began exploration for minerals in the southeastern Aegean Sea. Then the armed forces of Greece were put on high alert. The situation was de-escalated after the intervention of Washington.

Finally, Ankara and Athens cannot agree on the Cyprus problem. Since 1974, Cyprus has actually been divided into almost two equal parts: the north of the island is controlled by the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the south is controlled by the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, inhabited by Greeks. Greece is in favor of the unification of the island and insists on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the island (this contingent has about 40,000 people). Turkey, however, refuses to comply with these requirements and advocates for the international recognition of the TRNC as an independent state.

The conflict around Cyprus is also aggravated due to the discovery of large gas reserves in the territorial waters of the island, in the development of which the Turkish authorities are interested. According to the Greek authorities in the southern part of the island, only in the field “Aphrodite” gas reserves can be about 170 billion cubic meters. Ankara does not recognize the sovereignty of the Greeks over the fields and considers drilling licenses issued by the Greek Cypriots to Western companies illegal. At the same time, Turkish drilling vessels have been working south of the Karpas Peninsula in the north of the island since 2019.

Through the restoration of contacts with Greece, the Turkish authorities are generally trying to reset relations with Western countries, said Arif Asalioglu, Director General of the International Institute for the Development of Scientific Cooperation. “Earlier, Erdogan lifted a veto on Sweden’s admission to NATO after Stockholm agreed to support Ankara’s entry into the European Union. And the normalization of relations with Greece is one of the criteria for Turkey’s entry into the EU. Thus, the Turkish president says that he has changed his foreign policy approaches in the western direction,” the expert said. Ankara, while normalizing relations with the West, is also trying to get a financial assistance package to solve the country’s economic difficulties, Asalioglu believes.

The leaders of Turkey and Greece are likely to normalize relations under pressure from the EU authorities, Balkanist Oleg Bondarenko believes. “Against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, European states are not interested in the emergence of other potentially conflict points in the region. I believe that the idea of ​​normalizing Greek-Turkish relations belongs more to Brussels than to Ankara and Athens,” the expert believes.

On the other hand, continues Bondarenko, in the foreseeable future, the parties will not be able to eliminate all existing contradictions, and future negotiations will take place for the sake of negotiations. “The problem of the shelf of the Aegean Sea and Cyprus is of fundamental nature for both Ankara and Athens. Therefore, I do not expect any breakthroughs in the negotiation process. Probably, in Thessaloniki, the leaders will sign a declaration of intent, and everything will stop there,” the expert said.