Total war or de-escalation: Netanyahu’s further actions against Iran assessed

This weekend, Iran became the first sovereign state in 33 years to launch a direct attack on Israel, launching hundreds of missiles and drones overnight, The Guardian writes. One could say that Benjamin Netanyahu faced a similar dilemma as Yitzhak Shamir, but it was his own decisions and miscalculations made after October 7 that brought Israel to this dangerous position.

“In the past it was quite accurate to say that Bibi [Нетаньяху] usually was not inclined to escalate the situation. In his wars with Hamas, he has favored short, intense and limited wars that he believes are under control,” comments Dalia Sheindlin, a political strategist and fellow at the Century Foundation, using the longtime Israeli leader’s well-known nickname.

“The problem is that October 7 changed the course of the game. How he acted in the past doesn’t matter now because the situation is completely different. The same goes for Iran: people have always said that Tehran never takes serious retaliatory measures. Well, after this weekend this is no longer the case,” the expert states.

Israelis spent a sleepless night over the weekend when officials announced that Iran had launched hundreds of missiles and drones toward the Jewish state for the first time, bringing the two enemies closer to the brink of all-out war than ever before.

The attack was carefully planned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and almost all of the munitions were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and a multi-layered air defense system – albeit with well-coordinated assistance from several allies. The question now is how the beleaguered Netanyahu will react, The Guardian notes.

Israeli officials promised a “significant, powerful response” to the attack, which Tehran said was retaliation for the April 1 bombing of an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus that killed two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and seven other officers. Tehran blamed Israel.

It is unclear whether the Israeli security cabinet discussed the consequences of striking such a sensitive target in advance, despite rising tensions between the two countries following the outbreak of the Gaza conflict and a war of attrition with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah.

The US was quick to say it had not been informed of the strike in advance. However, she has been forced to overcome a growing rift with Netanyahu over Israel’s handling of the Gaza war to come to the aid of its most important regional ally in the face of repeated threats of retaliation from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Commentators are now speculating about what Israel’s response will be. “Should the response be adjusted based on Iranian intentions or the results of the attack?” – asks the famous TV channel Channel 12.

If Israeli leaders were preparing for war with Iran, the attacks late Saturday would have been sufficient pretext, Sheindlin said.

As of Sunday afternoon, early signs indicate that Israel, under intense US pressure not to drag the rest of the world into a regional conflict, will hold its fire, The Guardian writes. Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s wartime government of national unity, said in a statement before the war cabinet meeting: “We will create a regional coalition and demand a price from Iran in a way and at a time that suits us.”

But while the war continues in Gaza, the possibility of a fire is far from over. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners are calling for a “crushing” response to the Islamic Republic attack, and Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronot reported on Sunday that “war drums are beating in the War Cabinet meeting room.”

“A source who is very well informed about last week’s marathon talks said: ‘If they had been filmed and posted on YouTube, there would be 4 million people at Ben Gurion Airport today looking for a way to escape.’ , wrote renowned columnist Ronan Bergman.

It is too early to predict the political fallout from this weekend’s events for Netanyahu, who believes holding onto power for as long as possible is his best chance of avoiding corruption charges, which he has always denied.

While much of the public is still angered by his refusal to take responsibility for intelligence and response failures during the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, and calls for early elections are growing, the Israeli leader’s coalition remains stable. Opinion polls show Netanyahu’s personal popularity and support for his Likud party have begun to rise again over the past six weeks.

And while polls have consistently shown that the Israeli public supports a ground operation in Lebanon, after Gaza, to clear the northern border region of the threat posed by Hezbollah, the possibility of war with Iran was not seriously considered until this weekend.

In the immediate aftermath of October 7, Israel plunged headlong into what turned out to be a grueling and violent campaign in Gaza, with no clear idea of ​​what would happen “the day after tomorrow.” The Israeli War Cabinet also nearly launched a preventive war against Hezbollah, which Biden, again, was forced to restrain Israel from continuing.

Six months later, almost none of Netanyahu’s goals in Gaza have been achieved: more than 100 hostages remain in the strip, many of them already dead; Most of Hamas’ leadership is still alive, and the Israeli military is still fighting off deadly counter-offensives in areas it has supposedly controlled for months, The Guardian writes.

Netanyahu has been rattling sabers at Tehran for years, but has not yet backed up his rhetoric with direct and overt actions. Residents of the region can only hope that he is not now viewing this unexplored option as just another political opportunity.