Thousands of American cities turned out to be ghosts in the forecast for 2100

Environmental crises and a chance for a better future could destroy the United States

In 2100, our world will likely look dramatically different than it does today, either changed by natural forces or by people moving to more attractive regions and metropolitan areas. Cities will look completely different, too—and some may become shadows of their former selves. American scientists came to these conclusions using new modeling.

The study crunched the numbers and found that by the end of the century, nearly half of the nearly 30,000 cities in the United States will experience population decline, losing between 12 and 23 percent of their permanent residents. The results were published in the journal Nature Cities.

According to the analysis, these cities of the future are more likely to resemble fragmented, dwindling communities than entire ghost towns, as populations move within and between cities. That is, if local governments and city planners fail to respond and adapt to the changing needs of their residents, then the population will cluster in certain areas.

“The consequences of this massive population decline will entail unprecedented challenges, possibly leading to disruptions in essential services such as clean water, electricity and internet access as cities shrink and populations age,” the researchers warn.

Population declines in certain areas can lead to grocery store closures, leading to food deserts. Failing infrastructure in shrinking cities can also leave communities without clean water, as happened in Jackson in 2021.

These potential consequences of urban decline go far beyond what civil engineering graduate student Uttara Sutradhar originally set out to study. Her intention was to understand the transportation problems that cities in Illinois alone may face as their populations grow.

Intrigued by their results, Sutradhar and colleagues expanded their analysis to include all 50 states, basing projections on population trends based on U.S. Census data from three 20-year time periods and two data sets including five possible future climate scenarios.

“Most of the studies have focused on large cities, but that doesn’t give us an estimate of the scale of the problem,” Uttara Sutradhar told Scientific American.

Currently, 43 percent of U.S. cities are losing residents, a figure that analysts predict will rise as the century approaches. Depending on the modeled climate scenario, the researchers found that by 2100, up to 64 percent of cities could be in decline.

The Northeast and Midwest regions are likely to see the greatest urban depopulation. Texas and Utah, although their numbers are now growing, will face population loss by 2100 in large portions of their cities.

However, estimates of population trends for decades to come are inherently uncertain, and the analysis does not examine the economic or social factors driving projected trends. It also does not include migration within the U.S., where climate change is already forcing populations to move as places become less habitable due to extreme heat or recurring floods.

Research shows that by the end of the century, the number of octogenarians worldwide could outnumber people under the age of 5 by two to one. It is estimated that 183 of the 195 recognized countries may also be experiencing a demographic transition, with fertility rates falling below replacement rates.

Each city will follow its own trajectory, weathering its own climate and demographic changes, so local planning is needed, scientists say.