“They brought only 400 in a day”: what is happening with dollars in exchangers

After a months-long lull, the dollar and euro exchange rates against the Russian ruble went up: both until recently the key currencies for Russians are quoted on December 20 at around 70 rubles per unit (the euro is more expensive). At the same time, there is no fuss in Moscow exchange offices – those to which we have become accustomed for more than a quarter of a century – there is no evidence. Where the currency exchange life is in full swing and whether it is worth “shifting” into cash “bucks”, “MK” found out.

This is the official exchange rate for the afternoon of December 20: the US dollar at 69 rubles, the euro at more than 73. Exchangers, as always, are on their own wave: in the shopping center near the Schukinskaya metro station, they offer to buy euros at once for 80 rubles (sell – for 71). Dollar – 74 and 68 rubles. The people, which is typical, no one, two exchange offices of different banks work, but without a stir.

And where, in fact, those who want to buy a currency that is rising in price (during past price increases, for example, in 2014, there were literally crowds of such people)? The explanation is prosaic: in both exchangers, the euro was scooped out to the eyeballs, as soon as someone sells them, they are bought. There are dollars in one of the two, but as much as they brought today for exchange: 400 units.

“And why be surprised, I’m not at all surprised,” says the teller at one of the points. – On the nose of the New Year, many go to rest, Turkey, Egypt. We need dollars. Someone, probably, is going to Europe; at least the euro is actively bought.

This is perhaps the simplest explanation for the trend that the euro and the dollar will still rise in price. Almost all experts talk about this (and certainly no one promises a quick fall in foreign currencies against the ruble). True, economists, who, according to their status, are supposed to think in macroeconomic categories, argue the increase in a different way.

“The weakening of the exchange rate was a response to a decrease in the trade surplus,” notes Nikita Krichevsky, Doctor of Economics. — Incomes of exporters will grow, therefore, tax revenues and investment spending will increase. In addition, easing will make it possible to reduce the budget deficit, and if it is reduced to 75–76 rubles/$1, it will be completely eliminated. This means that, on the one hand, government borrowing, which we and our children (grandchildren) have to pay for, will decrease, and on the other hand, budget financing of the economy will increase.”

As for the cash currency, which is traded in exchange offices, the situation is determined not by the exchange rate of the Central Bank, but by the physical availability of this currency in banks: the US and EU sanctions imposed on Russia in February are still in effect. In particular, the cross-border sale of cash dollars and euros to Russian banks, legal entities and even individuals is prohibited. Recall that after the announcement of these sanctions in Russia, the sale of cash dollars and euros to the population was banned, but this ban was soon lifted. As a result, banks can sell cash currency, but only if it came to them after March 9 this year.

“The most excitement was last February and early March, when everyone was trying to buy foreign currency, remember, the rate rose to 150 rubles,” recalls the teller. “Now it’s not even close, everyone who needs it has already bought everything. There was a mini-hype in September: people came with bundles of British pounds. Because since October 1 we no longer accept paper pounds.

We are talking about a rather radical monetary reform in the UK: since October 1, only banknotes of a new type (“plastic”) have remained in circulation, while the older ones (“paper”) have been withdrawn from circulation. You can also hand over them in London only in a few branches of banks; in Russia, these banknotes have completely turned into irrelevant pieces of paper.

Dollars and euros continue to be in demand. “As a reserve currency, for savings, all this is now risky,” says Sergey Belyakov, a consultant in the field of international tourism and obtaining visas. “But for travel, and hundreds of thousands of Russians still travel abroad even now, the currency remains relevant.”

According to the expert, buying dollars or euros now definitely makes sense for trips on New Year’s Eve and in the winter months. It is impossible to say what the course will be in spring and summer, there are too many unknowns, from the military-political agenda to the policy of the Central Bank. “But I would advise, if money is now allocated for travel expenses in the spring, just take it and transfer it to the desired currency. You definitely won’t lose, although you may regret not winning. But this is tourism, not currency speculation.”

Oddly enough, travel forums and chats have become the best place to buy dollars (which are good as a universal currency in Turkey, Egypt, Asia) and euros. “After visa rules were tightened for Russians, the forums got a second wind,” says Belyakov. – There are a huge number of users there: some need advice or help with visas, others are just looking for sellers and buyers for currency exchange. As long as it is not prohibited, as in the USSR, therefore, people agree among themselves on the optimal rate – approximately according to the Central Bank index.

With regard to travel, it remains to recall the main rule for handling cash: when crossing borders without a declaration, you cannot carry with you an amount exceeding $ 10,000 at the exchange rate on the day of crossing. Similar rules apply to the import of foreign currency – and in this case, customs officers on the “other” side will also monitor this.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 28937 dated December 21, 2022

Newspaper headline:
Season of stale “greens”