“They are flying blind”: gloomy forecasts about COVID-19 for the fall are named

Experts warn that the UK is almost “blind” about COVID-19 this fall. As the number of coronavirus cases rises, scientists say the country is largely in the dark about how infections might manifest in the coming months.

The UK is practically flying blind when it comes to COVID forecasts this fall, experts say, as cases rise.

While the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) continues to track some indicators of COVID, including the number of hospitalizations, many public surveillance studies tracking infection levels have already been completed, writes The Guardian.

Now experts have sounded the alarm, arguing that the situation leaves the country in the dark about how COVID could manifest itself in the coming months.

Christina Pagel, professor of operations research at University College London, says there appears to be a new wave of covid — possibly driven by weakening immunity, new Omicron options and factors including bad weather keeping people indoors.

Pagel added that as fall approaches and people return to school and work, Covid pressures could increase. “Perhaps in September we will see that the wave will continue to grow, and faster,” she predicts.

In addition to public health measures, including the resumption of the use of high-quality masks in healthcare facilities, Pagel said she will support the return of the nationwide infection survey released by the Office for National Statistics for the fall and winter, as well as expanding its coverage of influenza and respiratory tract infections.

Otherwise, she said, sewage monitoring should be reinstated across the UK as a cheaper alternative being used in many countries to track the prevalence of COVID and its variants. Such schemes have recently been abolished in England and Wales, reminds The Guardian.

“What worries me the most is that this winter we will again have a repeat of last winter’s health crisis, when COVID, flu and respiratory infections hit at about the same time,” Pagel said. “We are definitely flying almost blind.”

Professor Rowland Cao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, also drew attention to the declining surveillance: “With regard to seasonal flu, we certainly have a certain degree of predictability given many years of data. However, as far as COVID is concerned, now that we don’t have these multiple streams of data to rely on, it’s harder to tell what’s going on in the general population.”

Professor Cao added that the various patterns of emergence of COVID remain largely unknown, and COVID did not just follow seasonal patterns.

Experts have also raised concerns about the UK’s vaccination program as autumn approaches. Professor Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London, said that although COVID was on the rise, it started from a fairly low level, and the “mildness” of COVID now is largely due to the fact that most people are still within a year or so. after receiving three doses of the vaccine.

“Mutations that interfere with immunity continue to appear, and cross-protection looks more and more unreliable. Meanwhile, immunity weakens markedly after one year,” Prof. Altmann warns, adding that it is important to plan another round of vaccinations and consider which specific vaccine it should include.

Professor Adam Kucharsky of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine notes that exposure to COVID will also affect population immunity levels. But he agreed that there is uncertainty about how COVID might manifest, including whether there will be multiple waves of covid per year.

However, Kucharski noted that the UK is no longer in a pandemic phase where rapid action is being taken – a period when very thorough surveillance was critical – adding that surveillance is now more about understanding the effectiveness of vaccines, weakening immunity and the pressure that causes waves of infection. .

Another vaccination campaign is expected to start later this year, according to the UKHSA, with eligibility based on health or age. The agency says it understands that talk of scaling up testing continues.