The world is under the threat of a new strain of coronavirus

So, according to scientists, according to last week’s data, the genomes of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 were discovered: in Denmark, in Israel and in Michigan (USA). Another genome of the supermutated variant was recently identified in London. And yesterday it became known that the geography of strain BA.2.86 (“Pirola”) expanded again. As the well-known American geneticist Dmitry Prus says, a month-old samples appeared from the South African provinces of Gauteng and Mpumalanga: “It was at their junction that the never-identified focus of strainogenesis (generation of new strains – Auth.) was located, which gave us all the main previous Omicrons. The Swiss have seen it in wastewater in one of their 20 wastewater treatment districts at around 2% levels, but there are no new patient samples yet.”

The scientific community is anxious about the emergence of a new variant of the virus. “Such a wide geographic spread suggests that the new option will not die out and will manifest itself in the near future. BA.2.86 has more than 30 new mutations in the spike protein,” says laboratory diagnostics doctor Alexander Solovyov.

According to him, the new version has not yet been officially assigned a letter of the Greek alphabet: this requires that BA.2.86 falls into the category of “concerned”. However, the coming weeks and months will clarify the situation with this new variant of the virus.

At the moment, little is known about BA.2.86, and its contagiousness (infectiousness) is difficult to assess. It is also unclear how severe the course of the disease it can cause, and how its appearance will affect mortality from covid. Its ability to escape from immunity, including vaccine immunity, is also unknown. There is no evidence that BA.2.86 spreads faster or causes more severe disease than previous versions.

“Second US case identified of BA.2.86 (Pirol), a hypermutant first discovered around the world last week that continues to be suspected to be the future Pi (or Ro – who knows if WHO will move from the Greek letter “Omicron” to the next or skip the letter, as they did last time), – says Dmitry Prus. – The new genome is a new branch of the Pirola evolutionary tree. And the geography is new: although it was identified in America, the patient flew from Japan to the Washington airport, and was tested upon arrival. So East Asia can be added to the geography of the virus (the previous samples are the first from Israel, three from Denmark, one from England and one from Michigan).”

The geneticist reassures that, despite the wide geography, which leaves no doubt about the ability of the virus to spread, even now it is possible to exclude the most terrible assumptions about the infectivity or pathogenicity of the virus: “In Israel and Denmark, a month has already passed in the presence of a new strain, and there is no sharp wave , and no BA.2.86 was found in the most recent downloads from both countries. They did not find new BA.2.86 in almost three hundred new genomes in England either. In America, more than one and a half thousand August genomes were also uploaded on Monday alone, but there is not a trace of Pirola. And in Austria, known for fast and high-quality mutation analysis, nothing was found in wastewater. Thus, levels of the new strain either do not grow exceptionally fast, or are so exceptionally rare that it is not yet possible to estimate their growth rate. There is also very little data on pathogenicity, but nothing exceptionally dangerous has yet been seen. Yes, in London, an elderly patient was hospitalized (and only because of this he got into rapid sequencing), but in Michigan, the same elderly patient had mild symptoms, in Denmark, too, no one had unusually severe symptoms, and the new patient is a traveler from Japan is asymptomatic. You can’t tell much from such a meager data set, but this picture does not look like a super-pathogen. We are waiting for additional observations, and we are waiting for the studies promised from Denmark on the immune properties of the virus they have already isolated.”

What is happening with the coronavirus today? Is it possible to speak about certain trends according to which it is evolving, or are all changes still unpredictable? Answered the questions of the observer “MK” microbiologist, assistant of the Department of Science, Pedagogical Faculty of Manchester Metropolitan University Victoria Doronina

– Viruses depend on the living organisms they infect, which is important for their reproduction. The death of the host organism before it has had time to transmit the virus is disadvantageous from an evolutionary point of view, since it limits the reproduction of the virus, is a dead end. Therefore, in the general case, the virus evolves in the direction of decreasing lethality. In addition, variants of the virus compete with each other, and the one that spreads faster wins. Lethality and spreading speed are qualities not absolutely related to each other, but correlated.

Not everyone has heard about the “big brothers” of COVID-19 – SARS and MERS strains, because with a higher lethality, they were poorly transmitted from person to person. As a result, they were quickly stopped. But COVID-19, which was less lethal but spread much faster, has followed a path of further increase in the rate of spread and decrease in lethality, but not without deviations.

The first widely distributed variant of “Alpha”, which was different from the “wild-type” Wuhan virus, multiplied faster without a decrease in lethality. The same thing happened with several subsequent options. However, in the end, variants were selected that spread quickly, but cause less serious disease.

It seems unlikely to me that there will be a variant that will not only completely avoid the already accumulated herd immunity, but will also be very lethal. It is more likely that against the background of a general decrease in immunity to other respiratory viruses, the “old” enemy, influenza, will begin to build up strength, or another respiratory virus, of which more than 80 species circulate, will do so.

– Now in the news feeds, most often they talk about the variants of “Eris” (“Eris”) and the new VA.2.86. What is their potential danger?

– “Eris” (EG.5) is a descendant of “Omicron”, which was first registered in February 2023. “Eris” is spreading faster than other strains: for example, in Britain, where many covid genetic sequences are determined, it is 1 out of 7 cases. However, its spread did not lead to a massive surge in hospitalizations, which means that it is no more lethal than previous options.

The BA.2.86 variant has more than 30 mutations in the protein that is responsible for the penetration of the virus into the cell, that is, it is very different from other variants. It is registered in several regions (Israel, USA, Denmark, Britain) and is spreading rapidly. However, it is not clear how severe the disease it causes, as so far too few people have gotten sick with it. However, there is a consensus among scientists and doctors that, given the formation of herd immunity, it is unlikely that it will cause a strong increase in the number of severe diseases and deaths. Why write about these strains? Why did WHO assign a letter designation to Eris, like Alpha, Delta, Omicron? Because it is not known from which of these “ugly ducklings” a black swan can grow, they need to be watched.

– Is the pandemic really over or can it return at any moment?

– In 2019, the human community found itself as if in a dry wooden house, into which fiery arrows of covid flew – each hit caused a fire that threatened to burn the house to the ground. Now the house is partially flooded with fire foam, and somewhere with water, which was thrown into the fire by the owners of the house. Even if a fire occurs, the fire hits the wet part and cannot spread. The COVID-19 pandemic is over as vaccines and survivors build herd immunity that weakens or stops the spread of the virus. People who can form immunity are vaccinated or have been ill. But this does not protect us from the pandemic of any other virus, which is significantly different from COVID-19.

– Recently, Canadian scientists reported that white-tailed deer can become reservoirs for mutations. What other animals can the coronavirus choose to mutate?

– Since the beginning of the pandemic, COVID-19 has shown the ability to infect not only humans, but also a wide range of mammals. Which is not surprising, since bats are the reservoir of covid, a family of mammals that are far from primates in evolutionary terms. For example, the virus began to be found in cats and dogs that were infected by their owners. In November 2020, all minks that were bred for fur were destroyed in Denmark, as not only was COVID-19 transmitted from humans to minks, as in the case of cats and dogs, but several dozen cases of reverse transmission from minks to humans were reported.

Therefore, the history of white-tailed deer is not unique. It was clear that the virus would continue to circulate in the human population, and since it could infect other mammals, reservoirs were also likely. Whether they are white-tailed deer, foxes or mice is not very important, deer are even better, since the average person in the city interacts with them much less often than with foxes or, especially, mice.

– Are there any ways to predict coronavirus outbreaks taking into account the absence of seasonality – maybe mathematical modeling?

– Mathematical modeling is used to predict not only the coronavirus pandemic, but also other viruses, such as the flu virus. But we can say that it was the COVID-19 pandemic that brought it to a qualitatively new level. For example, in Britain, it was the simulations by scientists at Imperial College, which showed that if there were no significant efforts to stop the spread of the virus, the healthcare system would collapse and the death rate would reach half a million people, which led to the imposition of strict quarantines.

However, modeling itself is a lever without a fulcrum. You can simulate anything, but if the government and the population do not believe the models, and scientists in general, they are useless.

– A recent poll showed that three-quarters of Russian doctors oppose mandatory vaccination against coronavirus – how reasonable is this now, is it necessary?

– Unlike many civilized countries, Russia was not able to convince the majority of the population of the need for vaccination when the virus was more terrible. In the current conditions of herd immunity and decreasing mortality, there is no need to force people to be vaccinated.

In Britain, vaccines for risk groups are people over 50, with chronic diseases of the cardiovascular system, type I diabetes, etc. – Free, but voluntary.

– Can vaccines universal for any variants appear in the near future?

– The target of coronavirus vaccines is a protein that is used to get the virus into the cell. It is also the target of the body’s immune cells, so variants are selected that can avoid the immune response – remember “Eris” with its 30 new mutations? Theoretically, it is possible to create a vaccine to less variable parts of the virus, which are the same in all strains, and therefore it will protect against all variants. These parts are therefore little changeable because they do not cause an immune response. They are folded in such a way that they are hidden from the cells of the immune system; antibodies are not formed against them. They have been trying to create a universal flu vaccine for several decades, it seems like there are promising developments, but so far only developments. Perhaps, given the new technologies that are used in the production of vaccines against COVID-19, it will take less time to develop a universal vaccine against it, but so far I do not know anything about this.