The World Bank raised its forecast for Russian economic growth for 2024 to 1.3%
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The World Bank (WB) presented an updated forecast for Russia’s GDP growth. From materials of the organization (.pdf) it follows that in 2024 the Russian economy will grow by 1.3%, and not by 1.2%, as indicated in the June World Bank forecast. The Russian economic growth forecast for 2025 was also increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous estimate, to 0.9%. In 2023, the Russian economy, according to the World Bank, grew by 2.6%.
The forecast for the development of the Ukrainian economy remains highly uncertain, the WB report notes. This is explained by the fact that the military conflict will most likely last until the end of 2024. Ukraine’s GDP growth, according to economists, will be 3.2% in 2024. In 2025, the World Bank expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 6.5%. In 2023, the Ukrainian economy grew by 4.8%.
The World Bank reduced its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone in 2024 from 1.3% to 0.7% in 2024 and from 2.3% to 1.6% in 2025. In 2023, the growth of the European economy, according to economists, was only 0.4%.
US economic growth in 2024 will be 1.6% (versus 0.8% in the June report), in 2025 – 1.7% (versus 2.3%). China’s economic growth, according to the World Bank, will be 4.5% this year (versus 4.6%) and 4.3% in 2025 (versus 4.4%).
The World Bank believes that in the first half of this decade the world economy may show the weakest growth in the last 30 years. According to the updated forecast, global GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2024, which is consistent with the previous estimate in June 2023, but in 2025 the growth rate is expected to be 2.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than last assessments. “The current decade was supposed to be a turning point in the field of development, however, according to forecasts, by the end of 2024 the world economy will set an anti-record,” the World Bank concluded.
Read more about the June forecast of the World Bank in the Kommersant article “Crisis becomes a habit”.
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