Sweet January for the ruble: dollar prospects announced

Experts argued about the impact of the Central Bank’s actions on the national currency exchange rate at the beginning of the quarter

The ruble decided to start the New Year with a decline, but then changed its mind and began to strengthen. This conclusion can be made by analyzing the results of trading on the Moscow Exchange. If the dollar ended December at just above 90 rubles, then on the first day of the site’s operation in 2024 (January 3), the American currency rose in price to 91 rubles. The next day, the price for a dollar on the Moscow Exchange was already more than 92 rubles. But when the rest of Russia returned from the New Year holidays, the exchange rate of the American currency fell again to a level of about 89.2 rubles. MK found out from experts how much the dollar will cost in January.

During trading on the Moscow Exchange on January 9, the ruble tried to win back positions against the dollar, rising in price by more than 1.3%. The last time the American currency was seen at a level below 90 rubles was a week and a half ago, on December 29. Most of the analysts surveyed remind us that January is statistically a sluggish month for the domestic currency, because the market and trade are just waking up after the New Year’s storm: there are few important events and news. The Moscow Exchange began its work earlier than the rest of Russia, but during the New Year holidays the trading volume on the foreign exchange market was approximately five times lower than usual. True, after returning from the “long vacation,” the most important event for the foreign exchange market was the resumption of currency sales by the Central Bank.

Analysts have differing opinions on how strongly this factor will affect the ruble exchange rate. Thus, according to the head of the analytical department for global markets at IC Fontvielle, Arthur Meinhard, it is expected that the volume of funds that the Bank of Russia will allocate to replenish the National Welfare Fund will amount to from 6 to 9 billion rubles per day in foreign currency. At the same time, the regulator will continue to purchase and sell foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule in the amount of 11.8 billion rubles. in a day. Announced transactions will be summed up. It turns out that net sales of foreign currency in January will range from 3 to 6 billion rubles per day, which is definitely not a significant volume for the market. According to expert estimates, the ruble exchange rate will be stable in January: the dollar will trade within the range of 89.5 – 92 rubles, the euro will be in the range of 96.3 – 99.3 rubles, and the yuan will move within the range of 12.3 – 12.7 rubles .

However, there is another opinion. Thus, according to Freedom Finance Global leading analyst Natalya Milchakova, the sale of foreign currency earnings may have a fairly strong impact on the ruble exchange rate in January. During January and until the end of the first quarter, this factor will work to strengthen the ruble. The ruble may also be affected by Bank of Russia operations carried out on the foreign exchange market on behalf of the Russian Ministry of Finance. However, most likely, in January, as well as during the 1st quarter, the Bank of Russia will act as a net seller, and not a buyer, of currency, mirroring last year’s transactions on the purchase of currency in the National Welfare Fund. Therefore, at the beginning of the year, the operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the stock exchange will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. Another factor is oil prices. They may be very volatile in January, which will contribute to sharp fluctuations in the ruble. In addition, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at 16% is high enough to curb inflation. Data on annual inflation in 2023, which Rosstat will present at the end of this week, may have an impact on the ruble early next week, but the nature of the impact will depend on what the statistics turn out to be. As a result, the dollar may be in the range of 85-95 rubles in January, the euro – within the range of 95-105 rubles, and the yuan exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of 12.4-13 rubles, the expert noted.

According to BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov, among the factors that will support the ruble in January are the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, a positive trade balance, a balanced budget policy, and a possible increase in oil and gas prices. And the ruble can be negatively affected by high inflation, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and continued demand for currencies from importers.

In addition, the national currency will be supported by equalizing the balance in transactions between exporters and importers. According to the head of the investment strategy research department at Alfa-Forex, Spartak Sobolev. Oil prices remain at economically acceptable levels, that is, above $60 per barrel of the Urals brand, which also serves as a positive factor for the ruble.