The virus breaks from the chain – Newspaper Kommersant No. 200 (7401) of 10/27/2022

On Wednesday, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, Anna Popova, announced that mutations in the Omicron coronavirus strain, called Typhon and Cerberus, have been identified in Russia. Experts attribute the next wave of morbidity approaching Europe and the United States to these options. Moreover, according to some estimates, “cerberus” spreads 20-30% faster than “omicron”. However, data on other properties of this mutation are not yet available. Infectionists interviewed by Kommersant believe that it is unlikely to lead to a more severe course of the disease.

Starting in August, the sixth wave of coronavirus in Russia rapidly peaked at about 50,000 new cases per day in September and began to decline. Now the federal operational headquarters reports less than 10,000 new cases every day, while recovering on average twice as many. In general, the epidemiological situation in the world is also favorable: the World Health Organization recently reported that the number of weekly detected cases of covid infection fell to the lowest level on record.

However, experts are already predicting a future outbreak of morbidity that new mutations of the “omicron” – BQ.1 can cause. and BQ.1.1, which received the unofficial names “Typhon” and “Cerberus” (in honor of the monsters of ancient Greek mythology). “They seem to have come out of nowhere,” Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, told ABC News. “But in fact, these variants were first seen in Nigeria in the summer and then spread to other countries. Europe and Asia, and now the United States.”

Of particular concern to experts is the strain BQ.1.1, or “Cerberus.” According to some reports, the speed of its propagation is 20-30% higher than that of the “omicron”.

To date, Cerberus has been identified in more than 30 countries, including the US, Germany, and the UK. For example, American experts say that “the extreme immune evasiveness and transmissibility of BQ.1.1 will make it the main driver of the next wave in the US in the coming weeks.” On October 21, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that “Typhon” and “Cerberus” account for 16.6% of the total number of circulating coronavirus variants in the States. On the same day, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control warned that these two variants would likely account for more than half of all infections in Europe in November-December.

Rospotrebnadzor officially confirmed on Wednesday that Cerberus had already entered Russia. The head of the department, Anna Popova, said that experts discovered both new genovariants last week. However, Ms. Popova assured that the epidemiological situation with coronavirus in Russia is “manageable”. According to her, for the fifth week in a row, there has been a decrease in the incidence, and “some rise” in late autumn is “quite expected”.

Anna Popova stressed that there are no plans to introduce any restrictions in the country again, as “there are no grounds for this.”

The subvariant of the BQ.1.1 omicron strain of coronavirus seems to have some advantages over other subvariants, but it is premature to conclude that its appearance could lead to another wave of coronavirus cases in the world, said Kamil Khafizov, head of the laboratory for genomic research at the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor . “Hundreds of detected samples is quite a small number compared to the hundreds of thousands of cases of COVID-19 registered around the world every day, even with a certain upward trend,” Mr. Khafizov explained.

Evgeny Timakov, infectious disease specialist and head physician of the Leader Medicine clinic, emphasizes that it is important to talk not about the number of cases, but about the severity of the infection. In his opinion, the disease caused by “Cerberus” will proceed even easier than in the case of earlier strains: Cerberus is already immune.”

New versions of “omicron” BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 will almost completely replace the existing ones by December 2022 – early 2023, Elizaveta Temnik, an infectious disease specialist at the Doctis telemedicine service, believes, referring to the forecasts of epidemiologists and scientists.

“In terms of clinical manifestations, they will not be more severe, but in these strains the structure of the spike protein will change, which allows the virus to increase its potential to spread and evade immune defenses. Post-vaccination immunity and immunity after an infection will have less and less effectiveness, but this immune protection will continue to protect against severe forms of the disease,” says Ms. Temnik. However, she notes, this will not create serious problems: vaccines, in her opinion, will be updated in the same way as flu vaccines.

Natalia Kostarnova