The US and China will resume consultations on nuclear arms control

China has agreed to hold consultations with the United States on November 6 on nuclear arms control and non-proliferation, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, citing sources. The meeting will take place ahead of talks between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping scheduled for mid-month on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco.

WSJ interlocutors note that the process is aimed at preventing a trilateral arms race between the United States, China and Russia. This will be the first such meeting between representatives of the two countries since the presidency of Barack Obama (2009–2017). But it does not mean the start of formal negotiations leading to the conclusion of agreements and a new security architecture, since we are not talking about work to reduce the nuclear arsenal.

As Bloomberg writes, consultations are needed “to give the Biden administration a better understanding of China’s plans.” The negotiating group on the US side will be headed by Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Mallory Stewart, and on the Chinese Foreign Ministry side by the director of the relevant department, Sun Xiaobo.

Washington’s concerns about strategic stability are caused by China’s growing nuclear missile capabilities. In October 2023, the Pentagon published a report according to which China has allegedly increased its arsenal to 500 warheads, and will increase it to 1000 by 2030. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stated that “the US report, like previous ones, is not based on facts and is biased.”

The United States has 3,750 nuclear warheads of all types in its arsenal. Their total number, including those removed from service, is 5244.

For years, the United States has been calling on China to begin arms control negotiations, while simultaneously expressing concern about the increase in its nuclear arsenal. Such calls were made under Barack Obama and Donald Trump (2017–2021). The latter actively called for the development of a comprehensive trilateral agreement between the USA, Russia and the PRC.

The United States also made attempts to initiate arms control negotiations with Russia. On October 25, Moscow received an informal proposal from Washington to resume the dialogue on strategic stability on a systematic basis. Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov said that there is no element of novelty in the proposals, but clarified that Moscow will study them. In June 2021, in Geneva, Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the New START Treaty (New START) concluded in 2010. In February 2023, Putin announced his intention to suspend the treaty; the State Duma approved this decision.

The announced consultations are a restoration of the process, which is now likely to take place in an expanded format, says Vasily Kashin, director of the Central Committee for Research and Development of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. It is important not to consider this a negotiation, but rather an exchange of views between officials and experts about countries’ nuclear doctrines, views on the development of armed forces and strategic stability, he says.

The decision of the PRC to agree to resume the dialogue interrupted under Trump can be considered a step towards Washington. Beijing considered it tactically justified to resume such contacts, which, however, could be reviewed during the next escalation. Consultations will also give China an understanding of American positions, but will not mean a reconsideration of the fundamental refusal to participate in formal negotiations until the United States disarms to its level. There is no point in Russia participating in this, Kashin is sure.

Such consultations between the United States and China are a significant event, but it is premature to talk about their prospects, says Oleg Krivolapov, a senior researcher at the Department of Military-Political Studies at the Institute of the United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The expert believes that there are a number of issues that need to be addressed between the countries, including the possibility of mutual control and asymmetry in the number of weapons.

The declared event is most likely symbolic, believes Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at IMEMO RAS.

He explains that it is inappropriate for Russia to participate in “American-Chinese plots” by the fact that the format of the “nuclear five” is more interesting for it. In his opinion, to maintain strategic stability, long-term transparency and avoidance of a situation where nuclear powers may fear a rapid buildup of arsenals by potential adversaries are more important.

The beginning of such consultations is a positive step that seemed impossible just a few months ago, notes Pavel Podvig, senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (Geneva). Podvig also does not expect agreements on the model of the Soviet/Russian-American ones, since we will not be talking about quantitative restrictions. “But they did not play a central role in the Soviet/Russian-American negotiations. More important was the fact of negotiations and agreements; it indicated that the parties were ready to adhere to the rules and were ready to cooperate. So it is here,” concludes Podvig.