The transformation of Poland from a zealous ally into an irreconcilable rival of Ukraine is explained

Polish liberals intimidate the West with the prospect of a victory for the ruling party

Poland was Ukraine’s most loyal ally. Why is she now turning into a bitter rival? Polish analysts tried to answer this question on the pages of the British publication.

The rally in Warsaw last Sunday drew crowds of up to 800,000 opposition supporters to the streets of the Polish capital, many waving Polish and EU flags. “There was an atmosphere of peaceful concern for the fate of the country,” Karolina Wigura, a historian and board member of the Liberal Culture Foundation in Warsaw, and political analyst Jaroslaw Kuisz wrote in their column in The Guardian. “In one of the largest demonstrations in Poland’s recent history, it was a stunning show of support for the opposition civic coalition and its leader, former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, as he prepares to challenge the right-wing populist ruling Law and Justice party in elections on October 15.”

But despite the success of the march and all it symbolized, Poland’s authoritarian trajectory appears stronger than ever, the Guardian wrote: “Over the past eight years, the government of an EU member state has been in the grip of unrelenting populism. More and more of the institutional elements of the liberal democratic system were destroyed, while independent media were attacked and the rights of minorities were significantly weakened. Rather than being a democratic contest—a point in the cycle when people begin to demand accountability—this election campaign has become yet another expression of illiberalism. Opposition warnings about threats to democracy were ridiculed or dismissed. Neutralizing political scandals has become an art form. The entire state apparatus, brought under the control of Law and Justice, was used to tip the scales in favor of this party.”

Continuing to complain about the trampling of liberal and democratic values ​​in Poland, Caroline Wigura and Jaroslav Kuisch note that an additional aspect was the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore, on Polish soil, “militancy has become, directly or indirectly, part of everyday experience”: “Fear of The spread of the conflict beyond the border triggered an initial wave of Polish solidarity with Ukrainian refugees. The countries of this region have been repeatedly wiped off the face of the earth, so their attitude towards sovereignty is post-traumatic. For this reason, the Poles willingly accepted Ukrainian refugees into their own homes; they recognized themselves as potential future victims of Russia. “‘We’ll be next’ has become a catchphrase.”

But, write Polish analysts, as fear of Moscow as an imminent threat waned and fatigue over the Ukrainian conflict spread among both the Polish public and government circles, solidarity with Ukraine also weakened: “Populism in power has returned to its a reliable “natural” trajectory of pure Polish-centrism.”

This is a new geopolitical context in which the Law and Justice party – one of the loudest supporters of Western military assistance to Kiev at the initial stage of the conflict – managed to go so far as to declare an end to Polish arms support for Ukraine as part of a dispute over the import of Ukrainian grain, driving down prices for Polish farmers. In a tense election, the ruling party is desperately fighting for every nationalist vote. Cheap Ukrainian grain has caused controversy among farmers across the region. However, the tone of this dispute between Warsaw and Kiev would have been unimaginable just a few months ago. In the fall of 2023, the fear of losing power appears to be stronger for Poland’s ruling party than the fear of Russia, admit Wigura and Kuisch in The Guardian.

“Given that the heart of global diplomacy is now in Kyiv and a transatlantic alliance has been formed around it, it is difficult for the nationalist government in Warsaw to remain an uncritical ally,” write the authors of the column in The Guardian. “The two countries look more like rivals for regional leadership than close allies. Poland’s importance as one of the largest EU and NATO member states is obvious, but the balance of power would immediately change if Ukraine were admitted to either of these organizations.”

Poland’s internal problems are now European, if not global, in nature, write Polish liberal experts: “And in addition to weakening international solidarity, the illiberal Pandora’s box is fraught with many other unpleasant surprises. Insulting the European Union, Brussels or Germany has become a feature of this campaign, and Warsaw would become an even more aggressive partner within the EU after winning the elections. Poland under populist rule will work not for a collective European agenda, but – together with Hungary under Viktor Orbán, Slovakia under Robert Fico and others – for the primacy of the nation state. An illiberal trajectory almost always leads to national selfishness and international confrontation.”