The term of the ultimatum to the coup d’état by the military of Niger from neighboring states has expired

On August 6, the ultimatum that the countries of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) put forward on July 30 to the coup d’état military of Niger to return ousted President Mohamed Bazum to power expired. According to the wording, supported at the organization’s summit in the Nigerian capital Abuja, the ECOWAS countries will take “every measure” to restore constitutional order in Niger.

Already on July 31, a joint statement was made by the ECOWAS foreign ministers, according to which Nigeria, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire are ready to send their troops to Niger. It’s not all members of the community. ECOWAS was founded in 1975 and includes Benin, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d’Ivoire, Cape Verde, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali (membership of the last three suspended after military coups in these countries).

According to Al Jazeera, Nigeria has already cut off the supply of electricity to a neighboring country, which dealt a serious blow to Niger, which receives 70% of its electricity from Nigeria. About 25 million people were left without electricity. But the Nigerian parliament did not approve of the idea of ​​military intervention. On August 5, President Bol Tinubu’s request for military intervention was rejected by the country’s Senate. “The Senate calls on the President of Nigeria, in his capacity as the ECOWAS presidency, to encourage and strengthen political and diplomatic capacity to break the impasse in Niger,” the statement said.

Al Jazeera recalls that ECOWAS has already had experience of intervention to change the government – in 2017 in the Gambia, the invasion of community forces led to the flight of authoritarian President Yayi Jammeh, who refused to admit defeat in the elections. But the situation in Niger, which has already been backed by the military regimes of Mali and Burkina Faso, bears little resemblance to the simple operation that led to the change of power in the Gambia.

In fact, France spoke in favor of intervention, which receives from Niger from 15 to 17% of the uranium used in its electric power industry. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said on August 5 that France “strongly and strongly supports ECOWAS efforts to crush the attempted coup in Niger.” In addition, the head of the French Foreign Ministry called on the rebellious Nigerian military to “take seriously” the demands for the return of power to the legitimately elected president of the country, Bazum, and warnings of a possible intervention.

The information that Paris would try to take Bazum out of Niger was rejected by the Colonna, saying that they were not true. At the same time, after the evacuation of over 1,000 people – citizens of France and other states, including the United States, the French authorities announced that they did not plan to withdraw their armed contingent of 1,500 people from Niger. The column stated that the French soldiers were in Niger “at the request of the legitimate authorities of the country on the basis of signed agreements.” In response, on August 6, the rebel military demanded that France withdraw its troops within 30 days in connection with the denunciation of the 1977 military-technical cooperation agreement.

France, of course, is coordinating its actions with ECOWAS, expert of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Grigory Lukyanov believes. Over a long period, Paris has carried out concerted actions with ECOWAS aimed at responding to various threats. France’s actions in relation to Niger are understandable and logical – Paris does not want to lose its position and source of resources, the expert continues. At first, Lukyanov adds, it was more about a special operation in Niger.

ECOWAS and Paris believed that the rebel military did not represent the entire armed forces and did not have a serious social base, so a limited show of force would force the army proper to move away from the alliance with the presidential guard and begin direct negotiations with France. Now, when the leader of the putschists, the commander of the presidential guard, Tchani, enlisted the support of not only the military, but also civilians, the situation became more complicated. In addition, the expert concludes, possible interventionists cannot but take into account the statements of the governments of Mali and Burkina Faso, where the military is also in power, who promised to support Niger.

The ECOWAS ultimatum was an attempt to intimidate Niger, there was no talk of a real full-scale intervention and, as a result, a war, Rakhimbek Bobokhonov, a researcher at the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is sure. ECOWAS simply does not have a mechanism for rapid troop mobilization and coordination of hostilities. The French are trying to maintain their military presence in Niger, but will still be forced to leave, it’s only a matter of time, he believes. According to the expert, the main problems of Niger are related to the economy, the country receives a penny for the exploitation of its uranium deposits by France and therefore needs economic assistance from other players.