The SME sentiment index dipped after rapid growth in the last six months
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After rapid growth in the last six months, the business sentiment of small and medium-sized businesses sank in August, as follows from the RSBI index data (calculated by PSB, Opora Rossii and NAFI based on a survey of 1.8 thousand companies). In August, the index maintained its position in the growth zone, but fell to 54 points from 57.1 points in July and 55.3 in June. The fall in the index is largely due to the worsening expectations of entrepreneurs due to the weakening of the ruble and the increase in the key rate.
According to the study, small and medium-sized businesses are already facing sales problems: 35% of SMEs reported a decrease in sales (31% in July), and 18% reported an increase in sales (19% in July). Pessimism regarding future sales has increased due to the expected transfer of the exchange rate to prices – 23% of SMEs expect cuts (18% a month earlier).
The situation with debt financing in August remained comfortable – 14% of respondents received new loans. 8% of SMEs failed to obtain a loan, while only 2% were unsure of loan approval. “Currently we do not notice significant changes in the availability of business financing. However, the situation may change with further growth of the key rate, primarily in terms of the investment activity of entrepreneurs,” notes PSB Vice President Kirill Tikhonov.
Investment plans of small companies have decreased: 26% of respondents plan to increase investments (31% in July), 5% (2%) plan to reduce them. In August, entrepreneurs have already reduced their investment activity (investment growth among 20% of SMEs versus 24% a month earlier). Plans to expand recruitment also became more restrained in August – 26% of SMEs plan to hire new employees compared to 36% in July.
It should be noted that business sentiment deteriorated most noticeably among small businesses – its index fell to the levels of spring of this year due to a decrease in sales and activity in attracting loans. The microbusiness index moved into the weak growth zone amid worsening expectations. Medium-sized businesses feel more confident: the improved sales situation ensured the growth of its index. However, a slowdown in business activity in August was noted in all areas of activity: manufacturing, trade, services – and may continue further due to a decrease in the availability of financial resources.
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