The sixth extra – Newspaper Kommersant No. 55 (7500) dated 03/31/2023

On Thursday, at a round table of the Expert Institute for Social Research, the results of polls on the pre-election situation in the Pskov, Samara, Amur, Nizhny Novgorod and Tyumen regions, as well as in Khakassia, where gubernatorial elections will be held in September, were presented. According to sociologists, the first five campaigns do not promise intrigue, as the population approves of the work of the current United Russia leaders and is ready to vote for them again. But in the republic, which is headed by the representative of the Communist Party Valentin Konovalov, the situation is diametrically opposite.

A study of the pre-election situation in the Pskov, Samara, Amur, Nizhny Novgorod and Tyumen regions was presented at the round table by the leading analyst of the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) Grigory Kertman. According to him, during March, sociologists polled 1,200 people in each region and came to the conclusion that the election campaigns there “do not promise any electoral intrigue and are not of great interest.” “The situation is very definite and unambiguous. (Will run.— “b”) persons completing the first term, all have extremely favorable starting positions,” explained Mr. Kertman.

According to the survey results, a positive attitude towards the incumbent governor prevails in all regions (from 74% to 79%), with the exception of the so-called Tyumen matryoshka (the Tyumen region with its constituent Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, whose residents also vote on elections), where this figure reaches only 48% due to the large proportion of those who have not heard of the head of the region, Alexander Moore (33%), or are indifferent to him (15%). “This is happening due to objective reasons: the inhabitants of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug live their own lives,” Grigory Kertman explained. He stressed that the ratio of positive and negative ratings remains the same as in the first four regions, and if we take the Tyumen region without taking into account districts, then the approval rate there is 71%.

“The image characteristics of all candidates are extremely high: from 70% to 78% of respondents consider their governors to be honest people, and dishonest – only from 4% to 8%,” continued Mr. Kertman. “Active, active – from 76% to 84%, and passive – from 6% to 8%; independent – from 59% to 72%, and afraid of responsibility – from 9% to 14%.

Residents of the Pskov region are most willing to support the re-election of the governor – there 86% of respondents allow themselves the opportunity to vote for Mikhail Vedernikov, and only 10% do not allow it. 84% of residents (11% rule out such a possibility) can tick the box for Dmitry Azarov (Samara region), 83% each (13% and 12% respectively) for Vasily Orlov and Gleb Nikitin (Amur and Nizhny Novgorod regions). Finally, 71% of the residents of the “matryoshka” (82% – excluding districts) are ready to support Mr. Moor, and 14% (16%) will definitely not do this.

“Almost two-thirds of respondents in all regions believe that in the next two or three years the current head will be able to improve the situation in the region. This indicator includes not only an assessment of the managerial abilities of the governor, but also the level of social optimism,” said Grigory Kertman. The request to change the current chapters is “insignificant” – from 7% to 9%, the representative of the FOM summed up.

Following a similar survey on the pre-election situation in Khakassia, was presented by the head of the political research department of VTsIOM Mikhail Mamonov, who immediately stated its “main characteristic”: “A clear request to change the governor.” According to the study, 54% of the republic’s residents believe that Khakassia needs a new leader, and only 32% that Valentin Konovalov should remain in office. Mr. Mamonov drew attention to the territorial features, according to which the highest level of support for a communist is recorded in the countryside – 35% of citizens do not want a change of power there, and the lowest is in cities and towns (31%): “But even among the villagers who are traditionally loyal to power, the change request rate is, alas, high.”

The sociologist noted that the awareness of residents about who Valentin Konovalov is is very high, which means that the attitude of residents towards him has already been formed and is unlikely to change: “Only 36% positively evaluate the work – this is one of the lowest indicators among the heads of regions” . Only a third of the population sees the results, Mikhail Mamonov continued, and this is “a very bad situation, which is associated with managerial failures.” “We remember the high-profile events in the republic and during the winter period of heating, and problems with the implementation of federal programs, mistakes in social policy, the personnel situation and corruption always “sound”,” he listed the reasons for the low rating of the governor from the Communist Party.

According to the results of the study, only 28% of the inhabitants of Khakassia believe that Mr. Konovalov will be able to improve the situation in the republic in the next two or three years, while the majority (55%) do not hope for this. “There is no faith, there is no hope,” Mr. Mamonov characterized the perception of the incumbent governor. “About half of the respondents say that he does not fulfill (promises.— “b”), and only a third – what it does. It’s disastrously low.” Finally, 44% of the population allow voting for a communist in elections, while 48% do not allow it.

A summary of the pre-election situation in Khakassia was summed up by political consultant Maria Sergeeva, who called Valentin Konovalov’s first term “five years of missed opportunities”, and also recalled that the most likely scenario now is the nomination of a State Duma deputy from United Russia Sergei Sokol against the communist.

Andrew Ashes