The share of non-convertible currencies in foreign trade is growing – Kommersant

Economists of the Solid Numbers Telegram channel analyzed the current mirror statistics of Russia’s foreign trade in goods with 44 countries, which accounted for most of its foreign trade. Like the statistics of the Central Bank, the data show a strong decrease in the size of the foreign trade surplus. According to the Central Bank, due to lower commodity prices and an increase in the discount for Russian oil (the value of exports of goods decreased by 35% in the first quarter of 2023 year-on-year) against the backdrop of imports recovering to pre-crisis levels, the surplus in the first quarter of 2023 decreased to $29 billion from $83 billion a year ago, “approaching the average level of recent years.” According to a sample of analysts from the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, the figure fell to $9.1 billion in January 2023 from $22.2 billion in January 2022. The number of countries with trade surpluses has fallen from 37 to 31 over the year.

An important observation of the authors of the calculations is that in February 2023, India took the largest share in the total surplus, accounting for 32% of the merchandise trade surplus – $4.8 billion of the total balance for the sample of $15.1 billion. sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters with rupee inconvertibility?” ask the analysts. The displacement of freely convertible currency from foreign trade settlements (according to the Central Bank, by the end of 2022, the share of dollars and euros in them for the first time in post-Soviet history became less than half) fills the accounts of exporters with Indian rupees, Turkish liras and equipment in January 2023 in annual terms decreased by 6.3%, vehicles – by 26.6%, clothing – by 13.7%. Against this background, the share of the EU in the import of goods over the same period decreased from 31% to 16.3%, the share of China increased from 29.8% to 34.6%, the shares of Turkey and the CIS countries increased from 1.7% to 4, 5% and from 3.6% to 6.5%, respectively, with a constant share of India of 1.2% against the backdrop of an increase in the import and sale of goods in the Russian Federation without the permission of the right holders (parallel import).

The fall in foreign exchange earnings, which can be easily exchanged for goods produced in “convertible currency zones”, will clearly continue. The share of the G7 and the EU, discussing a total ban on the export and transit of goods to Russia, in February 2023 accounted for about 18% of all Russian imports.

Artem Chugunov