Export climate is warmed by expectations – Kommersant

Industrial companies that exported their products are gradually adapting to weaker external demand and high uncertainty, according to the leading indicators of export activity of the HSE ISSEK Center for Business Research. Manufacturers see new markets primarily in the countries of Central Asia, as well as in China and other BRICS countries. Mining companies show interest in far abroad countries first of all.

The export climate index for the manufacturing industry in March 2023 increased by 0.8 points, to 87.9 points, but its value remains significantly lower than the levels of the beginning of last year, according to the HSE ISSEK Center for Business Research. An index value above 100 indicates a favorable climate for export operations, below 100 – on the contrary. A sharp decline in the index has been observed since April last year – against the backdrop of the introduction of sanctions and restrictions on trade with the Russian Federation. In January of this year, the indicator temporarily rose to 88.1 points. Previously, the failure of the index was observed at the height of the pandemic in 2020, when its value dropped to 72.6 points.

An improvement in current performance in the spring of 2023 was also recorded in the index of export expectations in processing – in March it rose to 100.7% and for the first time in a year approached the medium-term level of pre-shock sentiment, recorded in the ISSEK (local peak in January last year – 100.9% , last spring the index dropped to 97.7%). In contrast, the export barriers index in March fell to 100.5% after peaking in the third quarter of last year at 102% (for comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2021 – 100.2%, the previous peak was observed during the pandemic – 102.1 %). The decrease in the index indicates a decrease in the limiting influence of weak external demand and high uncertainty, HSE experts point out.

In order to adapt to the sanctions, companies, in particular, changed the geography of deliveries: at the end of last year, 36% of companies were looking for new directions for export, according to a survey of 1.1 thousand industrial companies. Manufacturers of furniture (57% of respondents), chemical products (52%), textiles (52%), clothing (50%), electrical equipment (49%), coke and petroleum products (46%), vehicles , as well as machinery and equipment (42% each). At the same time, 52% of the interviewed business leaders said that they consider the CIS countries (primarily Central Asia) as the main direction for export. This applies primarily to the production of other vehicles and equipment, rubber and plastic products, textiles, medicines and materials, drinks, and furniture.

The next most popular destination was China (11% of companies are considering entering the market), but mining industries show the greatest interest in China, primarily in coal mining (57%), as well as oil and gas (45%). In processing, the Chinese market is interesting for companies that are engaged in woodworking (42%). In general, partnership with the BRICS countries was considered only by 8% of the surveyed companies, among which the main share was occupied by production of metal ore.

Tatyana Edovina