The Serbian opposition began to deflate on another day of protests: what to expect next

On the evening of Monday, December 25, supporters of the opposition coalition “Serbia against violence” again took to protests. Demonstrators once again gathered at the building of the Republican Election Commission, blocked the streets, and marched to the police headquarters. Now their list of demands includes not only the appointment of re-elections, but also the release of detained protest participants. It is significant that the number of dissatisfied people on Monday was not as numerous as on Sunday, and the actions of activists were not as aggressive.

The scene, the music, the stones flying into the building of the Belgrade Assembly… All these are unique symbols of the hottest day of protests in Serbia – December 24. The actions of supporters of pro-Western opposition forces in the country who were dissatisfied with the outcome of the elections, which began after the early parliamentary elections, really gained momentum from December 18th. Therefore, the events of December 24 can be considered the logical outcome of all previous protests.

However, Sunday evening was remembered not only by Serbia, but also, without exaggeration, by the whole world: local security forces very competently repelled the crowd, although they themselves, according to representatives of the country’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, were subjected to severe attacks from the opposition for several hours. Of course, without warning from abroad about the impending riot (according to Prime Minister Ana Brnabic, these were people from the Russian special services), everything could have ended much more pitifully. And it is possible that the “Maidan scenario” worked out by the West could be repeated again, but only on Balkan soil.

In general, the music of the opposition scene began to gradually fade away. In the protests on Monday, the usual attributes were no longer visible (for example, the same flying stones or fireworks), and the local press stated that the day passed without incident.

But in no case should you think that everything has come to naught. At a minimum, the opposition promised new demonstrations, but with an additional condition: until those detained in the previous days of protests are released. Actually, this fact (that law enforcement officers were able to quickly detain a significant number of activists) obviously influenced both the decrease in the number of new demonstrations and the activity of the “dreamers of the West” who remained at large.

The opposition became zealous for an understandable reason: on the one hand, Aleksandar Vucic hinted the day before that “everyone will be arrested, no matter where they are hiding.” The leader of this Western Balkan state also added: “There was an attempt to forcibly seize the institution of the Serbian state, let’s see how the prosecutor’s office classifies this.”

The charge is serious. And it was later confirmed by the head of the Serbian police department, Ivica Ivkovic, telling reporters: the detainees were charged with inciting a violent change in the constitutional order – in connection with an attempt to overthrow the government – and violent behavior.

By the way, let’s turn to the Criminal Code of Serbia. Article 308 of the document clearly states: “Anyone who attempts to change the constitutional order of Serbia or overthrow the highest state authorities by force or threat of force will be punished by imprisonment for a term of three to fifteen years.”

As for incitement, the Serbian Criminal Code provides for punishment “in the form of hard labor for a term of six months to five years.” Anyone who commits the same thing, but from abroad, will be sentenced by law to imprisonment for a term of one to eight years.

It becomes clearer why the opposition became afraid, and the protesters suddenly became a little quieter. They just felt that things didn’t go according to their plan. By the way, here is another indicative incident from Monday’s protest: when the crowd moved to the police station (to find out the fate of their comrades), the deputy chief of police spoke to them. The answer was calm and brilliant in the current situation: parents can get information by calling “192”.

It is interesting, by the way, how Ana Brnabic described the behavior of the activists: “This is how their stories sound: when they started attacking the Old Court (now the seat of the Belgrade City Assembly – “MK.”), they said that people have the right to be angry. When they saw that this was not working in their favor, they declared that the bandits were “infiltrated elements.” Today they will go to the police to demand the release of these “infiltrated elements.” And so on in a circle.”

Brnabic is right, this can continue indefinitely, the opposition has such experience. That is why further protests should not be ruled out.

Considering that the country’s authorities have accused the West of generating protests, this story will not end so easily. Serbia, we would like to remind you, remains a candidate country for joining the European Union. Brussels directly began to tell Vucic that it was necessary to introduce anti-Russian sanctions and recognize Kosovo. That’s when you can dream about integration.

Belgrade does not agree to this, and early parliamentary elections were held, among other things, to delay the implementation of Brussels’ coercion. But it is known: when any country links its fate with the West, the West ties the hands of these countries in order to achieve its own selfish goals. In essence, what comes into play is the systematic subordination of states to their interests under the guise of assistance. Ukraine, for example, became a victim of such “help”.

Serbia is not so easy to subjugate. However, there are mechanisms. Over the past year, we have seen how this Balkan country is being rocked: escalation in Kosovo was followed by protests in Belgrade, and so on in a circle. Logically, one can predict that the next step (if the “Maidan scenario” fails) is to again expect an aggravation in Kosovo. But it is important to remember one more, less obvious, but unfairly relegated to the background point. Bosnia and Herzegovina includes the Republika Srpska, whose president, Milorad Dodik, quite often mentioned the need to separate the RS from BiH throughout 2023.

And here is Dodik’s latest statement about secession in an interview with the Banjaluka.net portal: “Muslims think that they are the masters of all of BiH. We will have to somehow awaken them from this dream so that they see that this is not so. We don’t believe in BiH. We don’t like BiH. This is our responsibility. I would prefer that, as soon as such an opportunity arises, the Republika Srpska leaves Bosnia and Herzegovina… If it were not for the foreigners, we would have done this long ago. To do this, they have an arsenal of various threats. I don’t want to put anyone through this. I do not want to subject the people to any destabilization, and that is why I insistently say that the only solution for the Serbian people here is an independent Republika Srpska.”

It’s not as simple as Dodik mentioning the “arsenal of threats” of foreign forces. Perhaps, in the current situation, it is worth paying attention to this direction as a potential means of Western blackmail of “greater Serbia.” But I wouldn’t like to give an idea…