The Russian economy did not do well in February
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In February 2023, judging by the latest statistics from Rosstat, the relatively positive results of January (see Kommersant of March 29) could not be consolidated. First of all, the attenuation of consumer demand attracts attention – according to the Ministry of Economy, the total turnover of retail trade, catering and paid services in February was 4.4% below the level of 2022 against a decrease of 3.6% in January. Note that the results in the annual comparison are strongly influenced by panic consumption in February 2022. However, taking into account seasonality, according to the CMASF, after a noticeable surge in January by December 2022, consumer spending froze in February compared to January – spending on food increased by 0.7% against an increase of 4% in January, while non-food products did not grow after rising by 9.7% in January, which may mean the exhaustion of a significant part of pent-up demand, which, among other things, was financed by the 0.6% growth in real wages in January.
In general, based on data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Economy calculated that in February the decline in GDP slowed down in annual terms to 3.1% against 3.2% in January, with a seasonal exception, there was no growth in February compared to January (in January compared to December 2022, it was estimated at 0.2%). “The economy continues to be supported by an increase in the volume of work in construction. In addition, a positive contribution is made by the growth of industrial production and freight transport (with the exception of pipelines),” the ministry notes. However, the assessment of the presence or absence of growth in industrial production depends entirely on the methods by which seasonality is removed (in annual terms, output continues to fall – by 2% in January-February). The Ministry of Economy believes that the growth of industrial production in February with the elimination of the seasonal factor remained at the level of January and amounted to 0.2% compared to the previous month. According to Rosstat, seasonally adjusted output in the sector increased by 0.5% in February after a decline of 0.6% in January, and compared to the average monthly values in 2020, it has remained virtually unchanged since April 2022. It is noteworthy that, according to Rosstat, industrial optimism, which has been growing rapidly since November 2022, has begun to stabilize since the beginning of 2023, albeit at high levels (see chart).
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