The IMF presented five scenarios for the split of the global economy

The fragmentation of the global economy into opposing blocs could reduce global GDP by 0.3 to 2.3% over a 7–10 year horizon, depending on how severe the split is. At the same time, in the least developed countries (LDCs), the fall in GDP can be double-digit. This is stated in the report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) “Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities”, which was reviewed by Vedomosti.

IMF experts identify five fragmentation scenarios: “strategic separation”, “geo-economic fragmentation”, as well as three additional ones that are implemented in the event of severe restrictions on trade in energy resources, high-tech products or agricultural goods. The first two options are considered the main ones in the fund. The probability of realization of the rest is relatively low.