The ruble strengthened sharply, frightened by the president and the Central Bank

But this fear does not last forever

In morning trading on the Moscow Exchange on Tuesday, the dollar exchange rate dropped below 94 rubles and reached its minimum level in six weeks. Analysts suggest that a strengthening trend for the ruble has begun. How long will it last or will it decline again?

As of 07:39, the dollar exchange rate fell by 49 kopecks, or 0.52%, to 93.93. The dollar has not traded below the 94 mark since September 12 of this year. The euro exchange rate at 7:20 Moscow time decreased by 14 kopecks, or 0.14%, to 100.6925.

The expected increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia on Friday, October 27, should support the ruble. The majority of analysts surveyed expect the Central Bank to raise the rate at the next meeting to 14%.

Many analysts predict an era of a strong ruble, that this trend is serious and long-lasting.

We called the experts.

“In my opinion, this is not a trend,” says Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – Fundamentally – in the ratio of exports and imports – nothing has changed. Let me remind you that back in the spring and summer of this year, the Central Bank explained the weakening of the ruble precisely by these reasons. That exports in value terms are declining, while imports are growing. As you can see, nothing has changed in this regard, everything remains the same.

– Nevertheless, the ruble is strengthening…

– There are a number of factors for this. In particular, the presidential decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters. And the tax period, when taxes in rubles begin to be paid at the end of the month. And for this they sell currency.

In my opinion, this is a short-term movement of the ruble towards strengthening. This inertia will most likely continue until the end of this month. And by the November holidays, it is possible that a reverse movement will begin, the ruble will begin to sink.

Aleksey Zubets, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, assigns a slightly longer period to the strong ruble.

– I believe that our national currency will strengthen or remain in a certain range until the spring of next year, that is, until the presidential elections in the Russian Federation. When will the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings be abolished? After which the ruble will begin to depreciate again. By mid-2024 we will see the dollar at 110 rubles.