The risks of the emerging problem with bank payments between Russia and Turkey are named

The situation is fraught with a weakening of the ruble and complications in business contacts

In the problematic story associated with bank payments between Russia and Turkey, there seems to be some positive shift. According to a representative of the state bank Ziraat, accounts are still being opened for Russians. But for this you need to have a residence permit, the right to work or a student visa, as well as a “non-withdrawal” deposit in the equivalent of $10 thousand. Previously, credit institutions in Turkey began, firstly, to massively curtail correspondent relations with Russian partners, and secondly, they sharply increased the requirements for individuals from the Russian Federation intending to get a card.

Let us recall that on December 22, 2023, US President Joe Biden signed a decree according to which foreign banks may be subject to restrictions for assisting with transactions with sanctioned entities and supplies to the Russian military-industrial complex. After which Turkish banks stopped making money transfers from Russia and to the country. Not in lira, not in rubles, not in dollars, not in any other currency. Local exporters were faced with the inability to receive payment for their supplies. As the Economim newspaper reported, citing sources, some banks even sent back transactions that had already been accepted, explaining that the transactions concerned “prohibited goods.”

An individual with a Russian passport was also injured. They began to receive letters demanding that they urgently provide documents confirming their residence in Turkey. The banks explained this by “internal procedures” and not by US sanctions policy. But one thing is clear: no one has the slightest desire to be on the American sanctions list – this is fraught with being cut off from dollar payments and local clients in Turkey fleeing the bank.

“These are not the first episodes, and we are not only talking about actions on the part of banks,” says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. – Back in March 2023, Ankara seriously limited the transit of sanctioned goods from Europe to Russia: customs began to reject declarations for this kind of cargo. However, to the credit of Turkish business, they bought these goods from us and kept them for themselves. As for banking, it’s even less pleasant: today, export-import transactions with the Turkish side are very complicated. We must not forget that they are largely related to supplies to the Russian Federation through parallel imports, in which Turkey’s share is estimated at $15-20 billion per year.”

There are risks, and they are recognized by both politicians and business circles in both our countries. There are ideas for creating joint banking structures in friendly jurisdictions (for example, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan) so that they can organize payments. But so far things are not moving beyond wishes. Under any circumstances, this will result in higher costs and higher retail prices in Russia. In addition, Maslennikov recalls, due to the threat of secondary sanctions, similar difficulties (although not on a massive scale) began to arise with banks in the UAE, Uzbekistan, and China.

“Delays in payment for export supplies negatively affect the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market,” Maslennikov notes. – In order to stabilize the situation and prevent the weakening of the ruble, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will have to, firstly, intensify foreign exchange interventions, and secondly, take into account the “Turkish” factor when shaping the course of monetary policy. Moreover, the sale of foreign currency earnings declared by the authorities is largely devalued and loses its meaning. If there is no revenue, then what to sell? It is clear that the sanctions pressure from the United States will not weaken, covering more and more countries and jurisdictions. Trading in national currencies can help here partly, but it also has its own objective limitations: a number of commodity markets are focused exclusively on toxic reserve currencies – the dollar and the euro.”

Russia has always had an uneven relationship with Turkey, ranging from love to hate. On the one hand, if we recall the years 2014-2016, Turkey then actively helped us circumvent Western sanctions, supplying Greek tomatoes under the guise of their own, and spare parts for the industrial assembly of washing machines. At the same time, says Alexey Vedev, director of structural research at RANEPA, official Ankara sometimes behaved in trade very strangely, impulsively, and frankly unfriendly, which led to large losses for local businesses. According to MK’s interlocutor, he does not believe that President Biden’s decree frightened Turkish banks so much that they decided not to deal with partners in the Russian Federation anymore. The closer the tourist season is, the more tenderly Russians will be treated in Turkey, Vedev summarizes.