The regions will stay in the black – Newspaper Kommersant No. 197 (7398) dated 10/24/2022

Unlike the federal budget, which, according to the expectations of the Ministry of Finance, will be executed with a deficit by the end of 2022, the budgets of the regions are planned to be closed almost “to zero” – with a symbolic surplus of 0.1% of GDP, or 102 billion rubles. (in 2021, the figure was 661 billion rubles). As follows from the materials of the “budget package” currently being considered by the State Duma, the balance in 2022 will be achieved despite a significant increase in spending. And unlike the “covid” 2020, such an increase in spending will be compensated not by the center’s transfers (which are considered part of the subjects’ income), but by an increase in their own revenues.

According to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, the income of the regions in 2022 will amount to 19.174 trillion rubles. (plus 1.631 trillion rubles compared to the previous year). The entire increase in revenues will come from an increase in own income – from 13.916 trillion to 15.524 trillion rubles. The volume of transfers will increase slightly – from 3.627 trillion rubles. in 2021 to 3.65 trillion in 2022. Expenses in 2022 will grow more strongly than revenues, by 2.19 trillion rubles, to 19.072 trillion rubles.

In 2023, the trend will continue and expenditures will grow faster than revenues – as a result, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, regional budgets will generally go into deficit. However, it will be minimal – 0.05% of GDP, or 77 billion rubles. With revenues of 19.283 trillion rubles. spending in 2023 will amount to 19.36 trillion. With a small deficit due to increased spending, the 2024-2025 budgets are also expected to be executed. The regions will have to continue the implementation of the “May Decrees” on raising the salaries of most state employees, finance the increase in the minimum wage and the annual indexation of social benefits, and also do not forget about the infrastructure projects approved in 2021-2022.

The revenue side of many regional budgets, as the Ministry of Finance itself admits, will be somewhat tense in 2023. As explained, speaking last week in the State Duma, the head of department Anton Siluanov, in the next three years, a slowdown in the growth of income tax collections is expected. “We see that the most risky are the strong regions, which have the largest source of income – this is income tax,” the minister said. The situation with the second “budget-forming” tax for the regions – personal income tax – is more stable, it is growing by about 15% per year.

Vadim Visloguzov