The Prime Minister of Armenia does not see any advantages in the Russian military base on the territory of the country

Moscow, in dialogue with Yerevan, expects to receive information about what Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan meant when he spoke about the need to “diversify relations in the security sphere.” This was stated on October 26 by the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the interview of the Armenian prime minister to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). “We are not inclined to perceive the WSJ as a primary source, so we still need to understand what exactly Mr. Pashinyan was talking about. It is not good for Russia and Armenia to communicate through newspapers. We continue dialogue with our Armenian colleagues and will continue to do so,” the Kremlin representative added. Peskov also stressed that Moscow will make efforts to help Baku and Yerevan reach a peace treaty.

The day before, Pashinyan told the WSJ that Armenia was looking for new partners, since Russia “did not fulfill its allied obligations” during the escalation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in May 2021 and September 2022. According to him, Yerevan decided to diversify its relations in security sphere after Baku restored sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh at the end of September. The Armenian prime minister said that against the backdrop of the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Yerevan saw no “advantages” from the deployment of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri in northern Armenia. At the same time, he noted that the Armenian side is not yet discussing with Moscow the possibility of its withdrawal from Armenian territory. “We are now discussing other issues more, trying to understand what is the reason for this situation, and, of course, I also think that this will be the agenda of working discussions between Armenia and Russia, Armenia and the CSTO,” Pashinyan said.

The 102nd base in Gyumri is equivalent to a motorized rifle brigade (numbering up to 3,000 people), in addition, a Russian air group with MiG-29 fighters and helicopters is deployed in Armenia. Current agreements provide for their stay until 2044. The borders with Iran and Turkey are guarded by the FSB border service. In all these formations, most of the privates and sergeants are citizens of Armenia. In addition, Russian peacekeepers were deployed in Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in 2020, but the future of their presence in the region after the liquidation of Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh is unclear.

When asked by a journalist about the prospects for Armenia’s further membership in the CSTO, the Prime Minister said that Yerevan remains in the organization because it compares its positions with other members and does not want misunderstandings. On the Armenian-Azerbaijani track, Pashinyan also said that the signing of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan could take place in the coming months based on the principles set out in the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, according to which the parties recognized each other’s territorial integrity within the administrative borders of the Soviet republics. Earlier, the Armenian prime minister announced the possibility of signing a peace treaty with Baku in Spanish Granada on October 5, but at the last moment, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev canceled this meeting. The next talks between the heads of state were scheduled for the end of October, and this time the meeting was canceled “due to lack of time,” EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar said on October 25.

This is not the first year that Armenia has been reorienting its foreign policy in favor of rapprochement with the West, said Caucasus expert Andrei Areshev. According to him, after the actual resolution of the Karabakh issue, first of all, the Armenian side will begin to draw closer to Turkey. Moreover, the Armenian authorities, according to Areshev, by selecting historical narratives, will try to blame Russia for all their troubles, including in the context of the Karabakh conflict. “This will allow the Armenian side to politically and economically reorient the country towards the West; subsequently Yerevan will insist on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Gyumri,” the expert believes.

According to Grant Mikaelyan, a researcher at the Caucasus Institute, the West will not fully accept Armenia into its orbit. For Western countries, the expert continues, it is enough that Yerevan moves away from Moscow and moves closer to Ankara. At the same time, the expert adds, Pashinyan’s course does not enjoy strong support in Armenia. As for the military base in Gyumri, the opinion of Pashinyan alone is not enough – troops will be withdrawn only when Russia is ready, the expert believes. The peace treaty, according to Mikaelyan, is essentially a capitulation of the Armenian side and a formalization of all previous actions of Azerbaijan. Different visions of the agreement in Yerevan and Baku, as well as the struggle between Russia and the West for the right to conclude it under their auspices, may hinder the signing, the expert concluded.