The President has set the task of raising the minimum wage to 35 thousand: is it realistic?

Professor Safonov: “If we don’t increase the minimum wage, then problems will arise with the workforce”

In his message, the president announced an increase in the minimum wage by 2030 to 35 thousand rubles per month. And he called for an increase in the share of wages in the country’s GDP over the next 6 years.

“Starting from 2020, the minimum wage has increased 1.5 times,” the head of state said in his message, “from 12 thousand rubles to 19 thousand. By 2030, the minimum wage should almost double again, to 35 thousand.”

A significant increase in the minimum wage will automatically affect the amount of social benefits, salaries in the public sector and, in general, in various sectors of the economy. As the government previously reported, as a result of increasing the minimum wage in 2024, wages increased for 4.8 million people.

But is it realistic for the state to accomplish such a task? Let us remind you that over the past 4 years the “minimum wage” has been raised by 7 thousand rubles, and over the next 6 years it is due by another 16 thousand.

We ask Alexander Safonov, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, about this.

“This assessment is based on the state of the labor market,” he says. – There is nothing else left for us. You need to understand that today we compete for personnel not only within Russia, but also abroad. If the dollar exchange rate does not change much, then 35 thousand rubles is not such a big amount, about 350 dollars. From the point of view of the European labor market, this is very modest. And if we do not increase the minimum wage, then more serious problems may arise with the labor force in the future.

Of course, the budget will have to withstand a fairly large load. However, the bulk of the population today works in the private sector and the task will be implemented, among other things, at the expense of commercial structures. They will become the main “draft horse” of this increase.

If the minimum wage seriously exceeds the subsistence level, this will serve to strengthen the incomes of low-income families and fight poverty. Plus it will increase the income of the subjects of the Federation, which means it will reduce the allocation of subsidies to them from the federal budget.

– The President called for increasing the share of wages in GDP by 2030. What does this mean, how will it affect real life?

– This is a signal to business for a more equitable distribution of income between different segments of the population. In particular, it is not at all normal that the average Russian and those who have excess profits pay almost the same taxes to the budget. And we all moan that if we increase his taxes, he will stop paying them or even flee abroad. Let him run, he won’t take the plant with him abroad. Yes, no one is waiting for him there.

The growth in the share of wages in GDP is a transition from low-skilled jobs to high-skilled ones. We will not create a modern economy if we pay pennies for labor.