The player is now expensive – Newspaper Kommersant No. 32 (7477) dated 21.02.2023

The research company CIES Football Observatory has published the results of its study of inflation in the football transfer market over the past ten years. The growth in prices for players is more than obvious in itself, but the value of this work is that its authors were able to assess the dynamics of inflation in the market by season, as well as identify some particulars. For example, players of what role or age rose in price faster than others. In general, it can be stated that market prices have doubled over the decade. And oddly enough, the defenders, not the forwards, rose in price the fastest.

CIES Football Observatory (a research structure established in 1995 by the University of Neuchâtel and the International Football Federation) published the results research, the purpose of which was to calculate the level of inflation in the football transfer market. The study covered the period from 2013 to 2023. It was conducted on the basis of a statistical model that took into account data on 5244 player transfers (only paid transfers were taken into account, loan transactions were not taken into account) between the 2013/14 and 2022/23 seasons. The model, in addition to the funds paid for the players, takes into account many other parameters, such as the age of the players, their role, the duration of contracts, the sports results of the player himself and the team he plays for, etc. This made it possible to estimate the cost of players close in class in different periods of time.

CIES calculations showed that, on average, football players rose in price by 9% annually. In reality, the figure would be much higher if it were not for the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, between the seasons 2013/14 and 2019/20, the increase in prices on the market averaged 13.8%.

But due to the restrictions caused by the pandemic, many clubs lost a significant part of their income, were forced to reduce costs, and as a result, inflation was replaced by deflation. In post-pandemic seasons, it was 0.2%. If not for this, then the rise in prices over the decade could reach 200%. Actually, by 2020 the prices for players have increased by 161% compared to 2013. Due to the subsequent drawdown, the ten-year growth was “only” 116%. This, however, taking into account various kinds of additional payments, usually depending on the results that the acquired player shows in the new team. But even with their deduction, the inflation accumulated over ten years in the transfer market is 90%.

To illustrate the increase in prices for players, we can also cite the absolute figures of clubs’ spending on reinforcements by season. In the 2013/14 season, they amounted to €3.861 billion. In the 2017/18 season – already €8.275 billion, and in the 2019/20 season they reached a record €9.702 billion. The next season there was a sharp drawdown to €5.424 billion, followed by recovery.

This season, teams’ transfer spending amounted to €9.12 billion, and, as CIES experts are confident, the record for the 2019/20 season will be broken pretty soon.

Interestingly, the average price of players over the study period did not change as much as the overall cost of strengthening teams (the imbalance is due to the fact that clubs simply began to buy more players). After all, if in the 2013/14 season a player cost an average of €3.17 million, then in the record-breaking 2019/20 season, the figure was only €5.01 million. The indicator for the current season is €4.64 million.

If we consider inflation not as a whole in the transfer market, but by its segments, for example, breaking it down by the role and age of the players, it turns out that it was not forwards that rose in price the fastest, although they remain the most expensive, and central defenders – by 12.5 % on average per season. Full-backs are next at 11.1%, followed by midfield players at 8.5%, forwards at 8.2% and goalkeepers at 5.2%. This has resulted in the proportion of money spent on striker transfers, which was over 56% in 2013/14, dropping to 49.5%. As for the breakdown of inflation by age groups, everything is predictable. The younger the player, the faster he rises in price. Players under 21 grew in price by an average of 12.8% per season, players aged 22-25 – by 9.8%, 26-29 years – by 7%, and players over 30 added 3.6% each.

Finally, it is worth noting that price growth has been uneven around the world. The fastest rise in prices was in the English Premier League. In the richest World Cup, the average inflation was 12.5% ​​per season. In the other four top leagues – Spanish, Italian, German and French – it was 8.5%, in the rest of the world – 7.7%.

Alexander Petrov