The New Year kicked off with a sharp rise in prices for basic vegetables

The expert told where the roots of inflation lie

As you might expect, 2023 started with old problems. In the first week, inflation was 0.24%. And the buyers who visited the shops in January saw new price tags for fruits and vegetables. According to Rosstat, for the period from January 1 to January 9, on average, they increased by 6.5%. In this regard, cucumbers with tomatoes were especially distinguished, which added about 13% of the cost. Which is not at all surprising: in the severe frosts that covered Russia in the first days of the year, industrial greenhouses increased the consumption of electricity and heat by about 30%.

According to experts, this group of goods will continue its rapid growth, as most domestic facilities stop production and prepare for the spring sowing season. We are waiting for the import of products from Azerbaijan and Turkey. Carrots, onions and beets gave us the same average figures of 6.5%. Cabbage and potatoes went up the least — by 2.35% and 2.02%, respectively. In general, it should be noted that there was a fairly strong growth in vegetables, which since autumn, from the beginning of harvesting, have shown price calm for three months and even brought down the level of all food inflation.

As for meat products (chickens, pork and beef), their rise in price is within the arithmetic error. It is more likely to be (according to Rosstat from 0.04% to 0.1%) than it is not. What really upset the housewives was the rise in price of 0.3% of frozen whole fish. Against the background of other types of fish, it, in fact, remains the only one available to buyers.

But there are pleasant moments in the Rosstat report. In particular, the infamous “sweet couple” (or friends in misfortune) – sugar and sunflower oil – without saying a word, took and fell in price by hundredths of a percent. Milk, cereals (buckwheat and rice) with noodles, and some other products reacted in the same way to the beginning of the new year.

In general, the forecasts of retail chains that there will be no increase in the price of food in January (for the reason that after the holidays people have no money) did not come true. The process, as they say, has begun. Prices rose to varying degrees for boiled sausages, salt and flour, butter and eggs. Even for our daily bread, the record harvest of which we never cease to be proud of, and they managed to increase by 0.09% in the first week of January. The jump in vegetable prices according to the rating outpaced the rise in prices for non-food and medical goods. Yielding the palm only to the increase in metro fares. On average in Russia they are 7.1%. Weekly inflation of 0.24% is a very high figure, – complained the candidate of economic sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev, answering questions from MK.

– What kind of inflation are we at risk of facing?

– According to rough estimates, monthly inflation will be 1%, and over the year it will exceed 12%. Despite peppy reports from the authorities, price growth shows high rates and the trend continues. Moreover, contrary to the usual trends, when after the New Year holidays the market is “frozen” for some time. This is anomalous.

– What does a significant price increase for vegetables mean?

– All about the same. It is necessary to understand how pricing is formed in the market.

– In what particular link?

– I mean all trade, not to separate retail from wholesale, look at it as a whole. They have enough profit to cover their production costs without raising prices. And so, retail “transfers arrows” to wholesalers, and those to manufacturers. It is necessary to deal with this entire chain, monopoly producers, at every opportunity, also try not to miss their benefits. In my opinion, this is where the roots of inflation are. Usually they are looked for in monetary policy, in the conclusion of some contracts, I don’t understand with whom. Which are not implemented and which have no legal force. It would seem that prices hit the ceiling last year, further growth has exhausted the possibilities. The population is unable to pay more. Trade understands this, but does not decline, looking for some kind of marketing moves to attract a buyer. Promotions, discounts, discounts, cashbacks…