The motive of Saudi Arabia to host a “peace summit” on Ukraine without Russia is revealed

In the last month of summer, August 5-6, Saudi Arabia intends to host a “peace summit” on Ukraine, organized at the initiative of Kyiv. About 30 countries have been invited to Jeddah, including the states of the Global South and Russia’s BRICS partners. The Russian Federation did not receive an invitation. We analyze what goals Riyadh is pursuing by providing a platform for negotiations on Ukraine and what advantages all this can turn out to Russia.

At the end of June in Copenhagen, an event similar to what is planned to be held on the shores of the Red Sea in the city of Jeddah took place “in conditions of the strictest secrecy” in Copenhagen. The “peace” conference on Ukraine in the Danish capital was attended by officials from India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. The center of this entire international rally was the discussion of the “peace formula” of 10 “fundamental points” of President Volodymyr Zelensky.

However, not everything turned out to be so simple and smooth for Kyiv. As Bloomberg highlighted, while the majority of participants in the Copenhagen meeting generally agreed that any final settlement must be in line with the fundamental principles of the UN, some guests showed serious disagreement over the specifics and tactics of the process. Brazil, for example, traditionally disagreed with Zelensky’s “peace formula”. The BRICS countries were in favor of inviting the Russian side to further such negotiations.

Has it happened? As we can understand today, no. The August “peace summit” in Saudi Arabia is recognized as a formal continuation of the “Copenhagen rendezvous”. In fact, the participants do not change, only the scenery changes.

The government of the Arabian Kingdom invited national security and diplomatic advisers from Ukraine, as well as representatives of India, Brazil, China, Turkey, Japan, Great Britain, South Africa and the European Union to the meeting. The situation with China is interesting. Beijing was also invited to the meeting in Copenhagen, but there were no representatives of the Celestial Empire there. Whether China will agree this time remains a mystery.

The largest emerging economies – including those in the Arab world – remained largely neutral on the Ukrainian issue. These countries have not abandoned contacts with Russia, and ties with a number of states are being strengthened. It is clear that the West does not like this alignment, which is why the United States and its allies are so persistently trying to turn any negotiating platform into an “apparatus” for recruiting developing countries to their side.

It is worth recalling at least the recent G7 summit held in May in Japanese Hiroshima, where interaction with the Global South was identified as a key goal. Has it been successful? Doubtful. These states are quite independent, and therefore any decision is made on the basis of their own interests. Being led by someone is definitely not in their worldview.

In this context, it is now worth returning to Saudi Arabia itself. The Kingdom also continues to maintain strong ties with Russia, seeing Moscow as an important ally in balancing the global oil market. By the way, in the first half of July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud discussed the continuation of cooperation in the OPEC Plus format.

On the issue of Ukraine, Riyadh as a whole has always shown a certain restraint, trying to establish itself as an effective mediator. It may be recalled that in March of this year, Prince Faisal Ben Farhan flew to Moscow exactly ten days after visiting Kyiv. The Foreign Minister of the Saudi Kingdom then confirmed that Riyadh was ready to make every effort to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Quite rightly, then, the question arises, for what purpose did Saudi Arabia decide to provide a venue in Jeddah for a “peace summit”? Especially without Russia and taking into account the fact that this event was initiated by Kiev.

– Saudi Arabia is expanding the range of its diplomatic contacts in various areas: new relations with Iran, security issues in the Persian Gulf. The country is also involved in other things, sometimes in competition with Turkey, which also seeks to prove itself in intermediary areas, explains Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, HSE Professor Andrey Baklanov. “Saudi Arabia knows our point of view. Now they seem to want to study the other side’s point of view in more detail in order to come to a conclusion whether it is worth taking on further continuation of the mediation efforts.

I highly appreciate the interaction between Moscow and Riyadh in the field of energy, where Saudi Arabia has shown greater foresight than our representatives. We had a lot to learn from them before OPEC Plus appeared. It’s true. But as for their understanding of conflict and crisis situations, I would not voice such epithets: they made a strategic miscalculation in the Syrian settlement (they stood up for those who do not need to be protected). And only 12 years later this position was revised.

The diplomat also noted that he does not see the serious potential of Saudi Arabia in resolving such crises and is skeptical about the ability of the Arab countries to make a significant contribution to the conflict settlement.

“They don’t understand the basis of our crisis,” says Andrey Baklanov. – We consider this a continuation of the Second World War, a continuation of the fight against fascism. For the Arab countries, World War II is an absolutely abstract concept. The Arab understanding of this issue is very far from reality. Therefore, their mediating role can only be useful in resolving humanitarian issues (for example, the exchange of prisoners), and if Saudi Arabia joins in the creation on a new basis of what used to be conventionally called the “grain deal”. It will be good if the Kingdom replaces the Turkish side.

We must call a spade a spade: the “grain deal” failed, we lost a whole year, it was the mistake of those diplomats who advocated its extension. On the other hand, bilateral ties are now developing extremely slowly, so some kind of compromise mechanism would be useful to us. If Saudi Arabia does this, it will be interesting for us to watch. And our colleagues, who will be instructed to develop this business, will need to analyze this year, free themselves from illusions and elements of unprofessionalism, and find a compromise on a new basis (based on realistic assessments). If, of course, the movement in this direction will go.

“It doesn’t look like Saudi Arabia is preparing something behind Russia’s back,” the expert believes. – Apparently, she wants to study the point of view of that side in a calm atmosphere, without an exchange of barbs between the Russian Federation and representatives of the West, and understand what their troubles come from. But at the same time, the Saudi side may not like them as much as we do.”