“The Most Dangerous Place on Earth” Just Got More Dangerous

“The most dangerous place in the world just got more dangerous,” says Fareed Zakaria, host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS. He recalls that a couple of years ago, The Economist declared on its cover that Taiwan, a tiny island home to 24 million people, was “the most dangerous place on Earth.” The reasons why he came to this conclusion remain compelling. In fact, they have only intensified recently.

The backdrop to tensions over Taiwan is, of course, the growing geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States. Since the rise to power of first Chinese leader Xi Jinping and then former US President Donald Trump, both countries have radically changed their attitude towards each other – from friendly to wary, and then hostile, notes the host of a program on CNN.

Perhaps China’s extraordinary and rapid rise and the reality of America’s dominant status made this inevitable. A rising power collides with an established one, creating a situation that could be “doomed to war,” according to author and Harvard international security scholar Graham Ellison.

But are we meant for war? asks Fareed Zakaria. The US and China are unusual in that while they are increasingly geopolitical rivals, they are also deeply interconnected economically.

One example: During the Cold War, at the height of US-Soviet trade, the two countries traded $5 billion worth of goods with each other in one year. China and the US exchange $5 billion worth of goods every few days. And that number hasn’t dropped all that much, even as tariffs, bans and trade restrictions have risen in recent years.

Moreover, China does not appear to be a revolutionary state seeking to overthrow the international system and present the world with an alternative ideology to the American one. This ideological rivalry that underpinned the Cold War is largely absent today, CNN notes.

However, one thing that is present is nuclear deterrence. China and the US have large arsenals that should have the effect they have had in other countries – from the US and Soviet Union to Pakistan and India – in deterring all-out war.

And yet… and yet: there is the problem of Taiwan, which lies at the core of US-China relations, states Fareed Zakaria.

China has never accepted that Taiwan can be an independent country. This is not Xi Jinping’s innovation. This is enshrined in the constitution of the People’s Republic of China. Every Chinese leader since Mao Zedong has stated the goal of reuniting the two countries, but in the past, Communist China believed it could wait because time was on its side. Ultimately, the mainland, with its huge economy and population of over a billion people, would pull the tiny island of 24 million people into its orbit.

That’s what they thought. But this premise turns out to be wrong, says Fareed Zakaria. According to the CNN anchor, “Taiwan has emerged as a defiant democracy with a political culture defined by its political system, in stark contrast to China. Over the past few decades, Taiwan has become more determined not to reunify with China. So Xi Jinping must be looking at this situation and feeling that time is not on his side. That it might be better to act sooner rather than later.

For America and its many allies in Asia, Chinese aggression to retake Taiwan would be unacceptable. “Washington was willing to accept China’s claims to Taiwan as long as it did not use coercion to achieve them.”

Taiwan’s policy for all parties is to tolerate fantasies about the future as long as there are no practical changes in the present. Most people in Taiwan just want to maintain the status quo and leave things as they are. While the island’s recent elections brought a party closely associated with an independent Taiwan to power for a third term, it is worth noting that it received just 40% of the vote, with the remaining 60% going to two less independent candidates.

What does all of this mean? That this problem will have to be managed, not solved—and managed very carefully by both Beijing and Washington. This is the only place on Earth where there should be little room for macho rhetoric and provocative actions. All three sides must continue negotiations to ensure there are no misconceptions or miscalculations, says Fareed Zakaria.

“None of this brings moral satisfaction,” he admits. “But the stakes are high enough that one thing is clear: if these tensions were mismanaged, if this conflict escalated into war, it would be a hopeless loss for all three sides; Moreover, the entire world would suffer catastrophic consequences. It’s better to kick this can down the road as long as possible and hope it doesn’t explode.”