The Moscow opposition assessed its chances in the 2024 elections

Elections to the Moscow City Duma are still worth participating in, this is the conclusion reached by the participants of a round table organized by the Deputy Academy project for training independent candidates. However, it is almost impossible for the opposition to win in them: there are fewer and fewer competitive constituencies. But still, elections remain a proven mechanism for political education, experts and politicians did not lose heart.

“First, a disclaimer: we are here for an absolutely legal reason, we will discuss absolutely legal actions, that is, there seem to be no risks or pitfalls planned,” the moderator of the meeting, political scientist Vitaly Koirakh, inspired the gathered oppositionists. The clearly mentioned “dirty tricks” were personified on the left hand of the moderator by the coordinator of the “Left Front” Sergei Udaltsov, convicted in 2014 in the “Bolotnaya case”, and political strategist Pyotr Miloserdov, convicted in 2019 in the case of creating an extremist community.

Mr. Miloserdov spoke first and presented an analysis of the past electoral cycle in the capital: in September, mayoral elections and municipal elections in New Moscow were held in the capital. “The results, despite the fact that about 80% are electronic, more or less reflect reality,” the expert said. In his opinion, during the mayor’s elections, the authorities did not adjust the results of remote electronic voting (DEG). As for the municipal elections, the expert drew attention to the fact that none of the oppositionists was able to achieve victory even in ordinary polling stations. And here Mr. Miloserdov sees the problem in the campaigns of the candidates themselves. “Yes, I understand, the regime is anti-people and angry,” the political scientist sneered. “But you yourself… I watched the campaigns: everyone liked to conduct them on the Internet, on social networks, on YouTube, but not on the street. And votes are obtained there, with sweat and blood, by going door to door.”

According to the forecast of Pyotr Miloserdov, in the upcoming 2024 elections to the Moscow City Duma, “everything will be done to ensure that there are no surprises”: “Out of 45 districts, about 32–38 are going to be made reinforced concrete non-competitive.” In “competitive” constituencies, the expert believes, “representatives of parliamentary parties will compete, the victory of each of which will suit the mayor’s office.” As a result, all parliamentary parties (including the LDPR and New People, which are not represented in this convocation), as well as representatives of Yabloko, will acquire factions.

A similar forecast was given by municipal deputy and blogger Samson Sholademi, but with the additions: “The Communist Party faction will shrink to three or four people, and most likely there will be no Socialist Revolutionaries, perhaps (Ilya.— “Kommersant”) Sviridov will succeed on the third try.” Mr. Sholademi simply called this year’s opposition campaigns “uninteresting.”

But Sergei Udaltsov considers the main problem of the opposition, coupled with the impossibility of consolidation due to differences over a special military operation, to be the lack of possibility of “protest”: “Street uniforms are very limited for us, and all other formats, in general, are not dangerous for the authorities.” The politician refrained from making detailed forecasts, adding, however, that “nothing good can be expected” and “a controlling stake will be in power.”

According to Pyotr Miloserdov’s calculations, to win the elections to the Moscow City Duma, the opposition candidate will need to get 20% of the votes of all voters: “On average, 28 thousand people will need to be brought to the polling station by the hand.” To collect such a number of “physical votes,” Moscow City Duma deputy Sergei Savostyanov (Communist Party of the Russian Federation) complained in response, “is practically impossible.” According to him, the “ceiling of physical turnout” was reached back in 2017, when “12 thousand votes were enough” for victory, but now, due to the DEG, this is not enough: “… the turnout was 42% (as it was in the elections for the mayor of Moscow. — “Kommersant”) — this is an unrealistic turnout for federal elections, where all federal parties are harnessed.”

However, the deputy still intends to participate in the 2024 campaign: “We must participate, conduct a campaign, because this allows you to talk with people, get in touch, preach principles, ideas and attitudes. And, of course, elections are an opportunity to resolve long-standing issues and problems.” Other future candidates, experts and current municipal deputies agree with this. “But you shouldn’t go to the polls and then take any position, even opposition, and do nothing,” said Yakimanka district deputy Vasily Dikarev (Yabloko). “As long as there is at least some kind of political life in the country, we must participate: if you don’t participate, nothing good will happen,” summed up his non-party colleague from the Timiryazevsky district, Sergei Dovgal, philosophically.

Grigory Leiba