The Ministry of Labor has developed a methodology for estimating the number of citizens employed in the informal sector

The Ministry of Labor has developed a draft methodology for assessing the number of Russians employed in the shadow sector of the economy, as well as for determining target indicators for its identification. This is reported by RBC with reference to a document signed by Deputy Head of the Ministry of Labor Mikhail Kirsanov. Based on the calculation formula proposed by the department, regional authorities will set KPIs for the “legalization” of such Russians. It is expected that in three years 30% of the shadow sector will be “whitewashed”.

It is proposed to calculate the number of citizens in two stages:

• determination of the number of non-working persons of working age (from the number of non-working persons insured under compulsory medical insurance, the number of children insured under compulsory medical insurance (up to 15 years inclusive) and pensioners will be subtracted);
• determining the potential size of the shadow sector (from the number obtained at the first stage, the total number of Russians who have reasons not to work will be subtracted – the Ministry of Labor includes a number of categories that receive income in the form of social payments or are supported by third parties).

As a result, the Ministry of Labor must identify the number of citizens whose activities have “signs of labor or civil law relations (entrepreneurial activity), are related to the satisfaction of personal and social needs, the use of personal labor and bring them earnings, remuneration or other income.” However, such activities are carried out without formalizing labor relations, concluding civil contracts, and without registering as an individual entrepreneur or self-employed person.

According to the document, the basic KPI for reducing the gray sector will be set at the level of “no more than 30% of the potential number of citizens in shadow employment for a three-year period in an equal amount for all constituent entities of the Russian Federation.” In the first year, regions will have to fulfill 20% of the target, in the second – to increase the degree of implementation to 50%, and in the third – to 100%.

The Ministry of Labor acknowledges that the obtained indicator may be inaccurate, since data from different administrative sources is used. Therefore, if the calculated indicator turns out to be negative, then KPIs for the region will not be established. As specified in the document, the Ministry of Labor will have to prepare proposals on target indicators for the regions at least once every three years, and these proposals will be approved by the relevant deputy chairman of the government (this position is currently held by Tatyana Golikova).

Starting in 2024, the government should begin issuing a forecast on the need for personnel for the Russian economy. The corresponding instruction was given by President Vladimir Putin during the September meeting of the State Council. The practice exists in many countries, but personnel forecasts are rarely fully realized, in addition, in the Russian Federation there is a lack of data on some segments of the labor market.

Details – in the material “Kommersant” “Work Forecast”.

Laura Keffer