The Ministry of Finance proposed calculating the budget rule based on the base oil price
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Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said during a government meeting that the department proposes returning to the usual parameters for calculating basic oil and gas revenues in 2024, based on the base oil price of $60 per barrel.
“If this year we calculated basic oil and gas revenues based on a nominal figure of 8 trillion rubles, then next year we propose to return to the usual parameters for calculating basic oil and gas revenues based on the base oil price,”— said Mr. Siluanov during a discussion of the draft three-year budget of the Russian Federation.
The budget rule is a mechanism for transferring excess income from the oil and gas industry into savings through the purchase of foreign currency. In 2023, the preset cut-off price for Urals, above which the currency was purchased, was excluded from this mechanism. According to the budget rule, currency is purchased if actual revenues from the sale of oil and gas for the month exceed the base level.
By forecast The Ministry of Economy, in 2023, the average price of Brent oil will be $83.5 per barrel, in 2024 it will rise to $85 per barrel, and in 2025 and 2026 it will drop to $80.2 and $76.2. Export prices for Russian oil in 2024–2026 will be about $70 per barrel, the department expects.
How reported At the meeting, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, in 2024, budget revenues are expected to be 35 trillion rubles, and expenses – 36.6 trillion rubles. According to the draft budget, non-oil and gas revenues in 2024 should be twice as high as oil and gas revenues. GDP growth in 2024 is expected to be 2.3%, then more than 2% per year.
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