The Ministry of Economy expects a decrease in demand for personnel in agriculture, finance and trade

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicted a drop in demand for personnel in agriculture, finance and insurance, real estate and trade by 720,000 people by 2030. About this reports RBC with reference to materials for the September meeting of the State Council Presidium on the labor market.

According to the publication, Minister of Labor and Social Protection Anton Kotyakov reported that until 2030, the demand for labor will grow: the economy’s need for personnel will amount to 73.6 million people. However, the Ministry of Economic Development estimates the need lower – at 73.1 million people.

The state of the labor market will be determined, among other things, by the general economic situation, structural restructuring of industries, demographic factors, level of education and qualifications, digitalization and automation of processes.

According to the forecast, the demand for agricultural workers will decrease by 300,000 people (from 4.5 million in 2022), in trade – by 200,000 (from 13.3 million), in financial and insurance activities – by 100,000 (from 1.3 million), in the real estate sector – also per 100,000 people (from 1.9 million).

For agriculture, finance, insurance and real estate transactions in 2017–2022. The number of employed people decreased, while real value added and output simultaneously increased. In trade and education, both value added and employment declined.

A slight decrease in the number of people employed in agriculture is associated with an increase in labor productivity and a decrease in the volume of low-skilled labor associated with the attraction of foreign labor. In trade, the decline is due to the development of online markets and the flow of employment into transportation and storage.

According to Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University under the Government, with the growth of agricultural production, the need for workers will also grow, given that a significant number of people left the industry to participate in the special operation.

According to Anastasia Vyalikova, senior consultant at the Agro-Industrial Complex and Food Industry practices of Kontakt InterSearch Russia, the outflow of personnel from agriculture is about 7–9% annually, so the demand for employees will only grow despite the development of technology and process automation. In addition, some of the personnel from the agricultural sector were taken over by defense enterprises offering a high level of income.

The reduction in the financial sector is due to the introduction of digital management, Safonov points out.

The development of technology directly affects the number of insurance agents, credit and insurance underwriters, and personnel of offline branches, says Maria Ignatova, head of the hh.ru research service. From February 2022 to February 2023, the number of vacancies fell monthly by an average of 22% compared to 2021. Credit or insurance underwriting specialists were in the top five for the smallest number of vacancies – now this work is automated, and a person is needed only to supervise the work algorithm. The same applies to insurance agents: the main insurance sales channel is now mobile applications and websites.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts an increase in the demand for personnel in manufacturing – by 500,000 jobs (from 10 million in 2022), in healthcare – by 400,000 (from 4.4 million), in transportation and storage – also by 400,000 (from 5 .8 million). In scientific activities, the need for employees will increase by 300,000 (from 2.8 million), in the field of information technology and communications – by 200,000.

“In the next 5–7 years, while maintaining technological limitations, it will be necessary to increase the number of employees in the manufacturing industries with an emphasis on increasing the number of specialists in the areas of training equipment and technology for land transport, materials technology, equipment and technology for shipbuilding and water transport, mechanical engineering, information technology, electronics, radio engineering and communication systems, aviation and rocket and space technology and their operation,” the documents say.

The aging population will increase the demand for personnel in health care and social services. In the field of IT and communications, the need for workers will increase due to the need and provision of “technological sovereignty.

According to Rosstat, in July the unemployment rate was a record low of 3%. The number of unemployed people totaled 2.3 million people, and the number of registered unemployed people (that is, those who applied to the employment service) amounted to about 509,000 people in the first half of 2023. Among them, the proportion of people over 50 years of age increased (from 27.4 to 30.5%) and those who are officially unemployed for one to eight months (from 68.7 to 70.1%). The increase in the latter category is associated with a deterioration in the qualitative composition of the unemployed in terms of education and professional qualifications.

Over the year, the share of unskilled workers increased from 18.2 to 20.1%. Employers are looking for qualified employees, but in the structure of the unemployed, the largest group is unskilled workers – this is the main disproportion.