The Ministry of Economic Development estimates the decline in Russia’s GDP for 2022 at 3%

The decline in the Russian economy by the end of 2022 will not exceed 3%, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Polina Kryuchkova said at a session of the Moscow Financial Forum. Previously, the Central Bank (CB) in the forecast of economic development defined the level of GDP for 2022 – according to the “baseline scenario” it will be from -6% to -8%.

“If in March-April optimists announced that the economy would fall by ten percent this year, and pessimists by 20 percent, now we already understand that the economic decline in 2022 will be less than 3%,” said Ms Kryuchkova ( quote by TASS).

In August, the Central Bank published three possible scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. According to the “baseline scenario”, GDP in 2022 will become negative (from -6% to -8%). According to the “accelerated adaptation” scenario, the economy will grow in 2023. According to the “global crisis” scenario, GDP will increase by about 1% only in 2025.

On April 10, the World Bank predicted a decline in the Russian economy by 11.2% in 2022. On April 12, the head of the Accounts Chamber, Alexei Kudrin, announced a possible drop in GDP for the current year by more than 10%. In September, the head of VTB Andrey Kostin – by 4%, the head of Sberbank German Gref – by 4.5%. Yesterday, September 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that the economy would decline by 2%.

Read about other estimates of the Russian economy in the material “Kommersant” “Forecasts diverged in scenarios.”

Polina Sobakina