The migration flow compensates for the loss of the indigenous population

Since the beginning of 2022, the population in the Russian Federation has decreased by 480 thousand people, which is almost 180 thousand people more than in the same period last year. Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, 9 million 613 thousand people got registered for migration in the first half of 2022. Compared to 6 million 475 thousand for the same period last year.

The population of the Russian Federation has been declining for the past 5 years, and at the same time, as demographer Alexei Raksha noted, commenting on these statistics during a press conference at the DOS, no improvement in the demographic situation in the Russian Federation is expected in the long term:

“So far, I don’t see the“ light at the end of the tunnel ”… We just got out of covid, and mortality has returned to normal (although there may be only a slight rise in September), but everything else is bad: the birth rate is falling, the economy is not growing, or is also falling, the income of the population is falling. All this is very closely interconnected, and perhaps these processes reinforce each other. I think that the rate of natural decline, which last year was a record for the entire history of the country (the natural decline of the population last year was 1.04 million people), this year, of course, will not be so large, because covid let us go , but in the future it will increase again or remain at a very high level, because our birth rate is quite low and will probably fall, the population is old, and there is no magic way out of this equation.”

Speaking about the reasons for the current situation, Alexey Raksha, first of all, pointed to the “echo of the nineties”: from 1987 to 1999, the number of births halved, and now this small generation, in turn, begins to give birth to children:

“The second reason is the lack of economic growth since 2014. Let me remind you that the real disposable income of the population remains at a level lower than in 2013 and will not exceed this level in the foreseeable future. There are no particularly good economic prospects on the horizon either.”

The chairman of the Central Committee of the Trade Union of Migrant Workers Renat Karimov, who also took part in the press conference, also considers the reduction in the number of the indigenous population of the Russian Federation a very painful topic:

“The fact that the loss of the indigenous population is being replaced by labor migrants is true to some extent, but not 100%, because the data according to which the number of labor migrants for the first half of 2022 was 1.5 times higher than for the same period last year and reached more than 6 million people, pretty sly. This is explained by the fact that we cannot accurately calculate labor migrants who are on the territory of the Russian Federation, because we rely only on the figures provided by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. And the Ministry of Internal Affairs gives us a figure that 9 million 613 thousand people got registered for migration in the first half of 2022. Compared to 6 million 475 thousand for the same period last year. But it is important to understand that these are not always specific people, these are just facts of migration registration. A specific labor migrant can register for migration several times in six months, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs records all these facts. Therefore, we cannot rely on these figures when discussing this problem. We can only say that the number of labor migrants in the Russian Federation in 2022 has grown significantly. Yes, the problem exists and does not have a very good trend: the number of labor migrants may continue to grow, since there are jobs in the Russian Federation, and in the countries where labor migrants come from, everything is fine with the birth rate, but there is no work.”

At the same time, as Aleksey Raksha clarified, it is important to understand that there are vacancies in Russia largely due to the fact that the number of indigenous able-bodied population is declining, and not due to the development of the economy.

By the way, during the Eastern Economic Forum, First Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Protection Olga Batalina also noted the problem of demography, offering tools to solve it. In her opinion, the main attention should be paid to employment, the fight against poverty and targeted support for the birth of second and third children in women aged 30-39 years. It is unlikely that anyone will argue with all these proposals, but the possibility of their full implementation may raise doubts. Indeed, as Aleksey Raksha noted, in France and the countries of Northern Europe, whose population has almost reached the level of natural reproduction, 4-5% of GDP is spent on family and demographic policy, and in Russia, according to various estimates, only 1-2% .

Sergei Ishkov.