The investment activity index in April stabilized after the March recovery to the high pre-crisis level of 2021

The updated index of investment activity from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) in April stabilized after a March recovery to a high pre-crisis level of 2021. The CMASF index fixes the level of supply of investment goods in the economy.

The supply of basic building materials as part of the index has been increasing since the beginning of the year. In April, this growth continued – the record for the volume of production of building materials in the Russian Federation was again updated. This is largely due to the needs of the special construction sector (see Kommersant of May 24). According to the CMASF data, the growth of imports of goods to the Russian Federation in physical terms also persists (seasonality is eliminated). According to indirect data, in addition to the import of consumer goods, an active import of investment equipment has also begun, experts of the center note.

It should be noted that, according to the monitoring of sectoral financial flows from the Central Bank, in May in sectors oriented to investment demand, the volume of incoming payments increased by 3.5% compared to the first quarter of this year (against the average monthly value, seasonally adjusted). This was mainly due to strong growth in the building construction sector, while in the construction of engineering structures and the field of specialized construction work, growth rates were moderate, according to the Central Bank.

Recall that Rosstat recorded a noticeable increase in capital investments in late 2022 and early 2023. The CMASF believes that in the first quarter of this year, seasonally adjusted compared to the fourth quarter, investments increased by 1.1% after rising by 1.8% in the previous three months.

Until recently, industrial investment plans also grew rapidly. But according to updated data from the Gaidar Institute, in May-June they underwent a significant adjustment. After reaching a record optimism level for 2012–2023 in April, investment plans lost their positive momentum in May and again became close to zero, in June they rose by eight points. “It seems that industrialists are trying to understand what kind of investment policy is rational in the face of a difficult geopolitical situation in the world, an unpredictable macroeconomic situation in the country and unprecedented personnel problems in the industry,” the institute believes.

Artem Chugunov