The industry is convinced of pessimism – Newspaper Kommersant No. 205 (7406) dated 03.11.
[ad_1]
The index of entrepreneurial confidence of Rosstat in October fell by 1 percentage point in production (to minus 2.3%) and by 1.3 percentage points in processing (to minus 3%). Taking into account seasonality, the indicator based on the results of a survey of heads of 4.4 thousand enterprises in the first decade of the month turned out to be the lowest in production since April 2021, and intensified the decline in processing after an attempt to recover in August-September (see chart).
The main reasons are the deterioration in the estimates of the economy of enterprises (now and in six months) and the dynamics of output and demand expected for three months. The factors limiting output are traditionally dominated by the uncertainty of the economic situation (mentioned by more than 60% of respondents in processing and 43% in mining), high taxes and weak domestic demand. According to the leaders, the need for highly qualified personnel is growing (primarily in the raw materials sector). The shortage of labor in processing in October is also indicated by the results of the S&P Global polls, which are conducted to calculate the PMI index (see Kommersant dated October 1).
Note that, unlike the Rosstat business activity index, the corresponding estimates by S&P Global and CMASF did not record a noticeable deterioration in the state of either processing or the sector as a whole. “All of the early indicators monitored by us have not undergone significant changes compared to September,” CMASF analysts note. Thus, the volume of electricity consumption (reflecting the production activity of electricity-intensive consumers) in October decreased by 0.1% compared to September (with the elimination of the influence of calendar, seasonal and temperature factors and cryptocurrency mining). In rail transport, loading of all types of cargo has not changed. PMI also did not record a significant change in the situation in processing and remains slightly positive.
Based on the Rosstat data on the dynamics of the output of basic sectors of the economy in September, industry and retail made the same and second (after wholesale trade, which failed due to lower gas supplies) contribution to the fall of the corresponding general index. Analysts of the Telegram channel Hard Digits estimated, according to these data, the decline in GDP in the third quarter at 3.6% – in September it accelerated to 4.7% against 2.2% in August, mainly due to industry.
[ad_2]
Source link