The incidence of COVID, SARS and influenza has sharply increased in Russia

The SARS season in the country has unfolded in full: Rospotrebnadzor reports the beginning of an influenza epidemic, and in a number of regions (there are more than 20 of them), the incidence of COVID-19 has begun to rise sharply. For example, in Moscow, growth over the past week amounted to as much as 30%. At the same time, coronavirus is now often paired with other respiratory infections, which aggravates the course of the disease. Increasingly, the latest generation of Omicron, called Cerberus, is being isolated in the country. Meanwhile, in other countries where the next wave of coronavirus began earlier, a sharp increase in children’s hospitalizations due to severe coronavirus infection is reported with concern.

There was no sadness, and now everything has piled up at once. Influenza, which we almost forgot about for three years of the pandemic, began to catch up.

Increasingly, genetic sequencing is being found in SARS-CoV2 strains circulating in Russia, the Cerberus subvariant (BQ. 1.1), which is causing concern among scientists. It has a phenomenal ability to bypass immunity gained through vaccination or previous infections, and is also more virulent, which increases the severity of the disease. And in Russia, it is already reported that lung lesions in coronavirus infection have become much more common than in other versions of Omicron. The proportion of community-acquired pneumonia among patients with COVID-19 increased from 1.9% to 2.9% over the past month. In addition, Rospotrebnadzor is expecting an increase in the incidence due to the spread of Cerberus.

Meanwhile, the world is sounding the alarm about the more severe course of new variants of coronavirus in children. According to the doctor of laboratory diagnostics, leading expert of the MedLabExpert association Alexander Solovyov, in all countries the same picture is observed – 2022 was the worst year of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of the impact on children’s health: “COVID-19 was the main cause of death from infectious diseases among all known causes in children in the U.S. Does exposure to SARS-CoV-2 make children stronger?Alas, numerous studies demonstrate the negative effects of the virus on many organs and on the immune system.Recently, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said that it is still unknown what this infection, when it occurs repeatedly, does to children’s immune systems.In Canada and the US, epidemiologists and doctors are discussing the alarming statistics of hospitalizations of children in the early winter of 2022-2023.In Canada, pediatric intensive care beds are overflowing and children have begun to be placed in adult beds. hospitalizations of children with bronchiolitis clinic prompted to speak again about the need masks in schools and restrictions on school attendance. Curiously, even in Sweden, which avoided lockdowns and maintained face-to-face education during the pandemic, calls are now being made to refrain from attending schools in Stockholm. There are several assumptions about the reasons for the deterioration of the situation with SARS in children, accompanied by an increase in hospitalizations. They talk, for example, about immune debt – a decrease in collective immunity to respiratory infections in the first year of a pandemic due to severe restrictive measures that led to a sharp reduction in the incidence of SARS. However, in the 2021-2022 season, there was already an increase in the incidence of RSV, and by the 2022-2023 season, the level of herd immunity should have increased. Another version: a more severe course of mixed infection (different combinations: COVID-19 + RSV + influenza + adenovirus). There is a negative impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the immune system and other negative effects of the new coronavirus, which leads to a change in the clinical course of the usual SARS.”

As for influenza, today the season is determined by strains A (H3N2) and B. There is also a pandemic strain A (H1N1), which we remember as “pig” – in recent years it has acquired the properties of a seasonal one, but, like all strains of influenza, is fraught with severe complications, especially for children, people over 65 and chronic patients. Rospotrebnadzor notes that swine flu has a great potential for spread, and can be characterized by various courses of the disease, including the development of pneumonia.

Covid, influenza and any other acute respiratory viral infections can occur with similar symptoms (fever, asthenia, muscle pain, weakness, intoxication, etc.), and even a doctor will not be able to distinguish one virus from another only by the clinical picture – only a test. This is important because the treatment is different (for example, there is a good antiviral drug for the treatment of influenza, other drugs are used to treat covid, depending on the severity of the disease). Therefore, when the temperature rises above 38.5, it is better not to delay contacting a doctor.

Meanwhile, the other day an inconspicuous date happened – the COVID-19 pandemic turned three years old. It is difficult to predict what prospects the pandemic has for the future. But some trends are clear. “Today, the coronavirus is showing signs of convergence,” says a well-known therapist, military doctor Alexei Vodovozov. “The evolution of the virus follows approximately similar paths in different parts of the globe. Apparently, it has found something suitable for itself. new mutations of XBB recombinants, local successful recombinants such as the Australian XBF appear, but so far it has not had a significant impact on the epidemiological situation – and it is unclear whether it can at all.” Vodovozov notes that the closure of borders during the pandemic was most likely a mistake: “The bulk of the imports were from secondary foci, so the peaks (“waves”) of incidence and peaks of the mobility of the planet’s population very well synchronized despite seemingly closed borders” .

At the same time, most likely (more precisely, don’t go to a fortuneteller) there are much more people who have been ill with COVID in the world than official statistics say (about 650 million). “Taking into account the seroconversion (antibody production) of the world’s population from January 2020 to April 2022, a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies suggests a figure of 3 billion people who have been ill (about 35% of the world’s population received antibodies precisely after “recovering the disease”). Total seroconversion (and ” illness”, and vaccination) is estimated at about 60% of the world’s population. At the same time, even after 2 years, post-covid remains in more than half of those who have been ill. If 3 billion have been ill, it turns out that almost 2 billion have a post-covid tail of varying degrees of shabbyness.This is what I understand as the “burden of the disease,” continues Dr. Vodovozov.

Well, one more bad news – several scientific papers have already shown that repeated COVID increases the risk of complications and death. In the acute phase of reinfection and within 6 months after it, the risk of death is 2.17 times higher and complications and hospitalization are 3.32 times higher.

The Japanese assessed the impact of behavior and lifestyle on the risk of infection with coronavirus. Going outside without a mask increases the risk of contracting coronavirus by 7 times, having the flu increases the risk of contracting covid by 6.33 times, sleep apnea by 5 times, and excessive exercise before bedtime by 2.1 times.