“The gray rhinoceros will win”: forecasts for the upcoming US presidential elections have been announced

The US presidential election promises to be unlike any other in the modern history of the country, Reuters noted in its material. However, absolutely the entire American press realizes and states this.

The frontrunner among the Republican presidential candidates is former President Donald Trump, who faces a slew of federal and state criminal charges stemming from his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden.

Incumbent President Joe Biden is the frontrunner among Democratic candidates. If he wins, he will become the oldest American to win the presidential race.

However, behind these obvious politicians there is a whole army of other candidates, although they outwardly play a secondary role. Potential voters have repeatedly admitted that they want to see someone other than the old men Biden and Trump. But let’s sort it out in order.

Republican Party Layout

Donald Trump undeniably dominates the Republican Party. His party members often avoid direct criticism of their leader. Even the criminal charges brought against him were perceived by the entire conservative wing as a personal insult.

One of the most recent and significant examples was the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court to exclude Donald Trump from the ballot in the Republican primaries in the state.

This was followed by an immediate reaction from fellow party members of the 45th President of the United States. Thus, US presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy promised to refuse to participate in the Republican Party primaries in Colorado after the incident.

Another candidate, Ron Desantis, said in an interview with CBN that the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to exclude Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment distorts the primaries in the United States.

Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick (also a Republican) even proposed not to allow Joe Biden to participate in the presidential election in his state due to ignoring the migration crisis. This was also a kind of “alarm” on the situation with Trump’s candidacy in Colorado.

However, each candidate, in principle, remembers why they all gathered there. The place of the leader of the state is at stake. And therefore, Trump’s rivals in the party (for example, the same Desantis and Nikki Haley) periodically hint that Trump’s legal problems will interfere with his fight against Biden.

Those who openly condemned Trump very quickly dropped out of the race (former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson).

The already mentioned Vivek Ramaswamy is perceived as the “heir” of the Trump program. It must be said that at the Republican debates this particular candidate spoke quite cheerfully and memorablely. If you look at Ramaswami’s path into big politics, there are many overlaps with Trump. In principle, a progressive rise could give Ramaswamy a chance to compete for the presidency. Although this still seems an unlikely outcome.

Whatever one may say, everything revolves around Trump for the Republicans. Even his high ratings indicate that ordinary Americans are not yet ready to change the eccentric, but already understandable Donald. And it seems that he may have enough strength to win if no force majeure occurs. What about the Democrats?

Democratic Party Layout

At first glance, everything is quite predictable for the Democrats too. The leader, albeit dubious, is old Joe Biden. Significant figures of the democratic wing and major donors support the current president. Much of this is simple: no one can effectively stand up to Republican heavyweight Trump. He is too daring and a significant figure on the US political chessboard.

Potential voters are frankly unenthusiastic about their current president. If airplane steps become an insurmountable obstacle for “Sleepy Joe,” then how can he compete with the mischievous Trump.

A Gallup poll released in December confirmed Biden’s dismal prospects: “Biden will enter 2024 with a consistently low approval rating, the worst of any modern president heading into a tough re-election campaign.”

Biden’s approval rating was 39% in December, according to Gallup. For comparison: in the election cycle, Donald Trump’s approval rating was 45% (2019), Barack Obama – 43% (2011), George W. Bush – 58% (2003).

Are there others? Yes, but also doubtful. For example, US Vice President Kamala Harris. Her rating also dropped significantly. Her performance in the top position has disappointed even her supporters, which is understandable. Although this may sound extremely subjective, it is difficult to remember anything else about her other than the convulsive applause and strained smile during Joe Biden’s speeches. She pulls out the boss as best she can, but she sinks deeper and deeper into the bottom.

There is another figure – 71-year-old American writer Marianne Williamson, who has already run for president from the Democratic Party in 2020. Then she was unable to gain the support of a large number of voters. Now she has built her campaign on promises to fight Biden’s mistakes, and the main slogans are “A New Beginning” and “Breaking the System.”

Independent candidates

They are often forgotten, but they exist. This list also includes significant figures: Robert Kennedy Jr. (descendant of the famous clan), progressive activist Cornel West and American doctor and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

As for Robert Kennedy, he was able to gain the support of potential voters. A poll released in mid-December showed the candidate could win more support than Biden and Trump. About 16% of respondents selected Kennedy as the candidate they would vote for. Yes, the percentage is incomparable with the main leaders of the race. What if there are no “main” ones? Then completely different figures will come to the fore. And here it is worth taking the person of Robert Kennedy Jr. seriously.

Cornel West also seems to be an interesting figure, although not as well-known as many others. In an interview with Politico, West expressed a bold thought: Joe Biden is unlikely to make it to the general election. Moreover, he argued that if he was running, it would definitely not be to oppose Biden. His preferred opponents were Democrats such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

West added that the situation on the GOP side looks more ironclad, but he doesn’t dismiss the idea that he could compete for the White House with someone other than former President Donald Trump.

He sharply criticized the two front-runners in both parties’ nominations. According to the newspaper, he admitted: “an incumbent president could abruptly end his bid for re-election, as President Lyndon Johnson did when he shocked the nation in 1968.”

Expert forecast

It is clear that there are a lot of options for the development of events. Chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Vasiliev shared with MK his forecast for the upcoming presidential elections:

– There are two basic scenarios. The first is that the election process will take place, but other political figures will participate. That is, neither Trump nor Biden will participate.

The second scenario is related to the fact that the Democrats will not give up power. In this regard, I do not rule out that a state of emergency may be introduced in the United States. It is precisely some kind of temporary state of emergency in order to postpone these elections or, at least, leave this issue in limbo.

As for the first option, today the situation looks preferable for the Democrats. They have candidates who can participate in the primary election system. This is California Governor Gavin Newsom, this is Vice President Kamala Harris, and is often called Michelle Obama. Maybe she, too, will join this race in one form or another. But that will be decided at the Democratic National Convention in August.

As for the Republicans, their situation is very complicated. Essentially, besides Ron Desantis (Governor of Florida – “MK.”), there is no second candidate. The party is unlikely to nominate a woman, Nikki Haley. If Trump drops out of the race, Ron DeSantis likely has a chance to win (I’m not saying win or lose). The Republican Party is not considering other candidates because some figures have faded away and others have not emerged.

How will this affect the outcome of the elections when replacement candidates come in? The expert notes that it is quite difficult to predict this:

– But here, in these conditions, the so-called “third parties” or “third forces” will play a big role. This is how Robert Kennedy Jr. and Joseph Manchin (current senator from West Virginia) can declare themselves. Perhaps these two candidates. They can become figures who will dramatically change the situation in the American political field. Make it more vague.

They can pull away a significant number of votes from both Republicans and Democrats. In fact, these “third parties” can decide the outcome of elections between candidates from both parties. Approximately according to the scenario that already took place in America in 1968, when then-Alabama governor George Wallace, splitting the Democrats, ensured Nixon’s victory.

It is very difficult to say anything for now, since the meeting of Biden and Trump will be a political earthquake. The question again is whether this will follow the traditional model (primaries, conventions and the final competition between two candidates), or whether America will again slide into a model of some kind of emergency. Then, when the democrats holding power will do everything not to give up this power.

Vladimir Vasiliev notes that the United States has now reached a point in its history when the traditional democratic model will no longer work. The absence of a traditional scheme, the analyst emphasizes, may determine something:

– How, where will the curve take you? It is quite difficult to say, but for now it seems that the traditional model will be exhausted during the 2024 elections.

The result of the presidential elections, notes Vladimir Vasiliev, will be a big surprise:

– In America it is sometimes called the “black swan” or “gray rhino.” This situation may arise. So far, the answer to the question “who can win the election?” – “gray rhinoceros”.

The term “gray rhino” that the expert mentioned was first used in 2013 at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos by American author, policy analyst and risk specialist Michelle Wucker. This concept was further developed in 2016 with the publication of Wouker’s book, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.

To put it simply: a “gray rhinoceros” is a highly probable and obvious event that everyone ignores. “Black Swan” implies a threat that is practically impossible to predict (that is, it is some kind of surprise that could not be foreseen).