“The fall means nothing”: economist Nikolaev predicted the future exchange rate of the ruble

What is happening with the dollar exchange rate cannot be called anything other than a collapse. Even on the evening of November 14, they gave less than 91 rubles for it – this is at least three and a half months. And the very next day, on Wednesday, at trading in the Moscow Exchange, the “green” dropped to 89.57 rubles, and by lunchtime to 88.98. The euro fell by 1.43 rubles to 96.7. The forecasts are full of optimism. The day is not far off when an “American” will cost 85 rubles, many experts believe.

For some reason, it seems that a wide road is opening up for our ruble. He will cross the Rubicon at 90 for the “American”, and there he will continue to strengthen. After all, everything is one to one.

The measures taken by the authorities (increasing the key rate and the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings) – once. There are two upcoming presidential elections in the country. I would like to believe that the authorities in such a situation will under no circumstances allow the ruble to weaken.

And those Russians who have surplus ruble reserves can’t wait for our ruble to begin its victorious march. And when will it be possible to buy “American” rubles at exchange offices for 75-80 rubles.

However, many Russians do not believe in the long-term prospect of the ruble strengthening. Otherwise, why buy hard currency? On the other hand, even the Ministry of Economic Development is more restrained in its assessments, predicting the dollar exchange rate to be around 94 rubles by the end of December. That is, the department does not expect any special breakthrough on the “currency front”.

In the meantime, the ruble is advancing on the positions of foreign currencies. In any case, on November 16, the Central Bank announced the dollar exchange rate at 89.45 rubles, and the euro at 97.13.

– Will the dollar fall below 90 rubles and if so, how long will our national currency strengthen? – we ask the chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Igor Nikolaev.

“If the dollar goes below 90 rubles, it doesn’t mean anything,” the economist answers, “As it goes down, so it goes up, we’ve been through this more than once.” Last year, as you remember, “green” cost a little more than 50 rubles. But then the price doubled. We need to look at whether there have been fundamental changes in the basis of exchange rate formation.

– But here everything is on the surface: mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, reduction of imports…

– The decisions taken by the authorities played a role, and we see their impact. But as for the trend, the export component continues to decline – year by year and quite significantly. There are no exact statistics on imports yet; they will be available at the end of the year. However, the trend shows that the dynamics of growth in foreign supplies has slowed down. It is growing, but not at the same rate as before. That is, by the end of the year, imports will be quite high.

These are the main factors that determine exchange rate formation. And there were no fundamental changes here. Compared to 2022, exports decreased and imports increased. Both work to weaken the ruble and, accordingly, strengthen the dollar.

– In the summer, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian Government Andrei Belousov said that our economy benefits from a dollar exchange rate in the range of 80-90 rubles. The ruble, one might say, has already entered this corridor. But what will he give to the economy if he consolidates his position in this position for a long time?

– In fact, this ruble exchange rate is low. However, it is beneficial for filling the budget. Given its scarcity, a weak exchange rate is quite acceptable. Exports are shrinking, and income from them is growing with a weak ruble.

– What if the dollar is above 90 rubles, then the budget’s capacity becomes worse?

– From this point of view, it is also beneficial. But we understand that not everything is so simple. The government needs to balance between filling the budget and inflation so that it does not rise sharply. In this situation, the Cabinet of Ministers will not allow a strong weakening of the national currency.

– There are forecasts that by spring the dollar will cost between 85-88 rubles. How do you think?

– My forecast is calmer. I am sure that it will cost no more than 100 rubles.