The expert explained the possible return to circulation of five- and ten-ruble banknotes

Is it possible to speak of a hidden denomination

Five- and ten-ruble banknotes may be revived as early as 2023. Arkady Trachuk, General Director of Goznak, stated this. The resumption of the issuance of money from the “dashing 90s” for the first time this year was discussed in the summer. Then the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Sergey Belov explained this decision by the rise in price of the metal and the emergence of technologies that can reduce the wear and tear of banknotes. However, in social networks, behind the initiative to return prodigal banknotes, they saw hidden hints of a possible denomination: they say that the authorities are preparing to reduce the denomination in advance. About why “conspiracy theorists” should not be trusted, “MK” was told by experts.

Russians can see banknotes of 5 and 10 rubles in their hands as early as 2023. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the words of the General Director of Goznak. Recall that the printing of banknotes in denominations of 10 rubles (with views of Krasnoyarsk) of the 1997 model was completed in 2013. The issue of five-ruble banknotes (with views of Veliky Novgorod) was stopped even earlier – in 1998. Formally, this money remains in circulation even now – no one has banned or canceled it, but in fact they are becoming less and less common.

“There is a difference between the production of banknotes and their actual release into circulation in accordance with the needs of the market, banks, and retailers,” Trachuk said. “But I can assume that next year we may see more low-denomination banknotes.” At the same time, the head of Goznak added that it is “not accepted” to talk about whether such banknotes are printed at the moment.

For the first time, the financial authorities started talking about the return of banknotes half-forgotten by Russians in the summer. Then the deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, Sergei Belov, revealed the reasons for such a step: in the zero years, these banknotes were in active circulation, but quickly wore out, so it was decided to replace them with coins. “Although they are more expensive to produce, we benefited from the greater durability of metallic money,” the deputy chairman of the Central Bank explained. But today, technology has advanced a lot: banknotes can be varnished with a special composition, which allows increasing their service life by 30%. In addition, the minting of 10 ruble coins turned out to be costly, since the cost of the metal has increased significantly since 2009. And the director of the HSE Banking Institute, Vasily Solodkov, hypothesized that, perhaps, after the imposition of sanctions, it became more difficult to obtain one or more components for coin alloys, which is why the Central Bank decided to return to paper banknotes. “Coins are heavier than papers, they are more difficult and costly to store, count, and transport,” said Mark Goykhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade. In addition, metal money does not return well into circulation – people simply prefer to keep it at home.

The unexpected resurgence of money from the 90s has led people, taught by the bitter experience of previous money cataclysms, to seek ulterior motives from the financial authorities. Thus, the opinion was expressed that the printing of additional banknotes could lead to inflation. After all, if the authorities leave the coins and print ten-ruble banknotes “from above”, then this will mean an issue, which is bad for the economy, since it can push up inflation if some of the coins are not disposed of. And it is difficult to do this – just because in the conditions of a large spread of non-cash payments, people often keep coins at home. Another frequently encountered conspiracy version is related to historical experience: they say that the authorities are preparing a denomination, they will “cross out” zeros on large bills, and move on to banknotes of lower denominations. But experts do not confirm such a scenario.

“There are no grounds for this,” says Alexander Razuvaev, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers. “Although I still believe that a 1:100 denomination and a penny return is a good idea and would benefit our economy. Just imagine: a bottle of water that can be bought for 50 kopecks, a dollar for 60-70 kopecks. After all, it would be great. But specifically, in the discussed decision of the financial authorities, we are talking about a purely technical measure.” The denomination is a political decision: only the top leadership of the country, and not financial regulators, can take it, the analyst emphasized.

According to Goykhman, the “renaissance” of banknotes of 10 and 5 rubles is associated with the usual economic logic. Money of small denominations is needed in trade, respectively, it is necessary to produce more of them. And this, due to the cost of the metal and other factors, leads to expenses for the Central Bank. Conspiracy considerations recede before the simple logic of this decision, the analyst believes.