The expert called the IEA’s forecasts about a two-fold drop in Russian gas exports one-sided

There are alternative fuel supply routes

By 2030, global demand for Russian gas will halve. Such forecasts are made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), assuring that importers will switch to liquefied raw materials from the USA and Qatar. Domestic experts do not agree with Western estimates, believing that the recent reduction in supplies to the EU will be compensated by increasing sales to the Asian market.

The share of natural gas, as the IEA believes, by the end of the decade in the global energy balance as a whole will decrease by 15%. The demand for “blue fuel” will fall due to the expansion of demand for “green” energy: car owners will continue to switch to electric cars, and light and heat in residential buildings will be provided by wind and water power plants. Russian gas, agency analysts are confident, will end up on the margins of the global commodity market. The reduction in supplies to European consumers, which occurred against the backdrop of an aggravation of the geopolitical situation and subsequent sanctions, will turn into a trend that could by 2030 drop the export of raw materials from our country to its lowest level in history. Russia’s profit from gas sales may fall by 2.5 times: from $100 billion to $40 billion per year

On the contrary, alternative projects of the USA and Qatar for the production of liquefied gas will double and bring more than 250 billion cubic meters to the planet’s fuel market. The development of a similar Russian segment of the energy market will be complicated by long-term sanctions, due to which the domestic raw materials industry will lose access to advanced Western equipment and foreign know-how in the mining and processing industries. We asked the General Director of the Institute of National Energy, Sergei Pravosudov, to what extent such forecasts are justified.

– The International Energy Agency is considered one of the most authoritative institutions in the global fuel community. Both producers and buyers of energy resources rely on the forecasts of its analysts. However, in the current geopolitical situation, can their calculations be trusted?

– It is undoubtedly necessary to pay attention to the IEA forecasts. The entire global energy market relies on the analytical calculations of this organization, especially those made in the annual World Energy Outlook report. At the same time, it is necessary to understand that the IEA was created by the United States and the West in the mid-1970s as a counterweight to the largest Arab resource powers and OPEC. Now the IEA has switched to negative rhetoric in its assessments of the Russian raw materials sector. There is no doubt that these assessments are biased in favor of the West in general and America in particular.

– So, should we believe their forecast regarding a sharp drop in demand for Russian gas over a 7-year period?

– Russian gas supplies to Europe have indeed fallen. In 2022, the export of our “blue fuel” to the countries of the Old World decreased by almost half: from 155 billion to 80 billion cubic meters. But at the same time, gas supplies in the Asian direction, on the contrary, increased: gas exports through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China increased by 46% in annual terms. In 2024, the planned volume of exports to the Celestial Empire promises to increase from 22 billion to 30 billion cubic meters. The Power of Siberia – 2 gas pipeline, the construction project of which has already been prepared, will be able to provide up to 50 billion cubic meters of supplies. The creation of a second line of this raw materials route will expand the number of Asian buyers of Russian gas – Mongolia and Pakistan are eyeing the purchase of our fuel. There are also plans for the so-called “Far Eastern route,” which provides for the creation of an additional pipeline supplying hydrocarbons from large fields in this region to the Chinese market. This is another 10 billion cubic meters per year.

– However, Russia is still losing the European market due to the increase in LNG supplies by our competitors?

– Not at all. Last year, LNG exports from Russia increased by 8.6% to 33 million tons. In the energy balance of a number of European countries, in particular Greece, Belgium and Spain, the share of liquefied gas from our country continues to increase and is already reaching strategically important levels. According to the Russian Energy Strategy, by 2035, LNG production at domestic plants will increase to 140 million tons per year, which will cover a larger number of global energy importers.

– So, we can conclude that the IEA’s forecasts are incompetent?

– Competent, but rather one-sided. Buyers of energy resources will primarily focus on economic factors: if gas from Russia, including liquefied gas, turns out to be financially beneficial for them, then priority will be made in its favor, without taking into account geopolitical components.