The expert called the advantages of the grain crisis: a good moment to renegotiate the deal

The Black Sea grain crisis is gaining momentum. But there is also good news. More precisely, there are no completely bad ones: despite Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, no emergency has yet been heard in the humanitarian maritime corridor. In addition, on Monday the Presidents of Russia and Turkey had a telephone conversation. We talked to Fyodor Lukyanov, Director for Research at the Valdai International Discussion Club, about what news to expect in the future.

– Fedor Alexandrovich, no specific results of the conversation between Putin and Erdogan are known, but the tone of the message from the office of the Turkish President – the Kremlin has not yet spoken out – is quite optimistic. Can you see signs of de-escalation in what is happening, in your opinion?

Well, to be honest, I haven’t seen any signs of escalation yet. Other than Russia’s announcement that it was pulling out of the grain deal in response to the attack on Sevastopol, nothing else really happened. Therefore, there is no particular escalation so far. Although the potential for it, of course, is available. If everything goes the way it is, Russia will either have to introduce elements of a naval blockade, or it will look like a country that does not control the process at all – it declares something, but no one cares about it.

But it seems to me – perhaps Erdogan’s tone is also connected with this – that what is now being carried out is not an attempt to pressure and escalate the conflict, but an attempt to adjust the parameters of this deal. Because Russia, as you know, is not satisfied with this deal, it believes, firstly, that it is not being fulfilled, and, secondly, that it is not very beneficial for us at all.

– Is Moscow interested in resuming the grain deal?

– I think Moscow is interested in resuming the deal on slightly different terms. Now is a good time to fix something there or even restart it. Such a scenario, it seems to me, may well be realized. But if there is a firm and tough position of Ukraine or Western countries that will goad Ukraine, then the issue of escalation will rise, of course, in full growth.

– And what, in your opinion, these new conditions can be?

– This question is not for me. But I understand that Russia is unhappy that we were not given the opportunity to export in sufficient volumes what we want to export. That is, we are talking, first of all, about the removal of these restrictions.

– A rare statement, sounding today from the lips of our top officials, does not contain assurances of readiness for negotiations. In turn, according to the office of the Turkish President, in a conversation with Putin, “President Erdogan said that resolving the grain crisis with a constructive approach will encourage steps to be taken to return to negotiations (between Moscow and Kyiv).” In your opinion, is this a serious argument for Putin?

– Absolutely not. This argument was voiced after the conclusion of the grain deal. The Turks said that this was the first step towards broader negotiations. In my opinion, it was immediately obvious that this was not the case, and further developments confirmed this. That is, it is a local problem and a local agreement. If she is, then she will be. But nothing more ambitious follows from it.

– There is an opinion that by following the principle, so to speak, in this matter, Moscow can lose Erdogan as a partner, and rather a unique partner, and find another enemy in his person. Is there any basis for such concerns?

– No, there is no ground for such fears. We have more than one theme in our relations with Turkey. There are a lot of topics – very different and important for both sides. Our relationship is built on endless bargaining, endless pushing, pushing each other towards something. Every time the problems are sorted out in one way or another.

Erdogan positions himself, and it is extremely beneficial for him, as someone who is able to resolve issues with Russia. That is, if some issue is not resolved immediately, this does not mean that he will say: “Well, then that’s it – I turn my back on you.” He has nowhere to turn. In the sense that he will not get a more favorable position for him than now.