Normality with elements of drama

Partial mobilization of employees in October did not have time to affect the economic performance of most large companies, according to a survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP). The survey did not find a decline in the investment activity of companies or failures in the execution of orders, the negative consequences are still associated with the general emotional background and a decrease in consumer activity, which is why some companies report a decrease in revenue and a deterioration in their financial situation. Estimates of the future state are less optimistic: from a third to a half of companies expect deterioration in financial performance, complications in fulfilling contractual obligations, a decline in investment activity and aggravation of personnel problems. A smaller part of the business, judging by optimism, expects competitors to leave the markets.

The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs summed up the results of a survey of large companies, conducted from October 4 to 24, on the impact on their work of the partial mobilization announced since September 21 and continuing until recently (yesterday it became known that the Kremlin will not issue a formal decree on its completion ). When it was announced, companies immediately reacted to the possibility of recruiting employees and warned departments about the risks of suspending enterprises, seeking deferrals for staff both at the level of entire industries and individually as part of the work of draft boards. According to the RSPP survey, about 60% of companies did not notice the impact of mobilization on staffing in October, but only 40% do not expect the situation to change in the future. So, if in October more than a third of companies reported a negative and extremely negative impact of mobilization on the situation with personnel, then more than half of the respondents speak of negative forecasts.

The economic performance of most companies remained stable in October, with 80% to 90% of those surveyed reporting no change in revenue, investments, financial position of the company, as well as the delivery time of orders and the timing of their own contracts. 6.5% of companies reported on the reduction of investments and lengthening the delivery time of orders. The worst of all respondents (more than 15%) assessed the situation with revenue, which can be explained by a decrease in demand for company products and directly affect their financial position: almost 15% of respondents also reported a deterioration in the indicator.

However, partial mobilization will continue to affect the position of companies after its completion. In this regard, only half of the companies are confident that their economic indicators will remain unchanged. Business estimates future investment activity better, which can partly be explained by the need for companies to increase investment in production and increase labor productivity, compensating for the lack of workers. 27.6% of enterprises reported a forecast of a reduction in investments, 19.5% and 30%, respectively, of lengthening the delivery and fulfillment of orders. Expectations of revenue and financial position are still worse: 37% and 42% of respondents note the negative impact of mobilization, 4% and 2.6% are extremely negative.

There are also optimistic forecasts: for example, 2.3% of companies expect investment growth, 6.5% – revenue growth, 10% – reduction in order delivery times, and 18% – order fulfillment. RSPP “Kommersant” did not answer yesterday what kind of enterprises they might be talking about. Part of the optimism can probably be attributed to rising demand for company products, as evidenced by another RSPP survey as part of the monthly business environment index. On the other hand, the continuation of the military operation obviously affects the long-term indicators of the competitiveness of Russian companies and the belief that the military operation is dragging on, and foreign companies that have left the market will not return to it soon.

Partial mobilization could only have a negative effect on relations with foreign partners (19% of the respondents, the rest reported no changes). The nature of relations with both banks and government agencies remained practically unchanged: for 2.7% of negative assessments, banks received 1.3% of positive ones, for departments the ratio was 6.6% negative to 9.2% positive.

Diana Galieva