The expert assessed the rumors about the upcoming shortage of gasoline and the ban on fuel exports

In May, stock prices for gasoline reached a new historical high: AI-95 rose above 61,000 rubles per ton. Growing not only wholesale but also retail prices. Last weekend, at some metropolitan gas stations, a liter of 95-octane gasoline rose to 60 rubles.

Some experts believe that the increase in gasoline prices is directly related to the increase in export supplies of fuel abroad – this year they have grown by 38 percent. In this regard, on Tuesday, Reuters reported insider information: allegedly, the Russian government is going to ban the export of gasoline. Whether the authorities will take these measures, and most importantly, whether it will help to contain prices in the domestic market, MK asked economist Nikita MASLENNIKOV, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies.

– The situation on the fuel market is really tense now. Exchange prices for gasoline peaked, and this began to be transmitted to gas stations. Moreover, prices are different at different gas stations: gas stations that operate under oil brands try to keep prices down, independent gas stations experience more difficulties with deliveries, respectively, their prices are higher. Therefore, yes, at some gas stations in Moscow one could see the 95th gasoline at a price of 60 rubles per liter.

“But the summer season is ahead, when people travel more, so the rise in prices cannot but worry the population, and the government cannot be indifferent to this either.

– Gasoline prices affect not only tourism, but also consumer demand, but almost everything – the cost of all goods and services. But I would not reduce everything only to the growth of export deliveries. There are several reasons. First, last year the government reduced subsidies to oil refineries, believing that they had increased their exports quite seriously, so they already have good profits.

The second reason is that the shortage of fuel could be formed because scheduled repairs are carried out at oil refineries in the summer, which reduces the volume of supplies. A doubling of these factors could give rise to talk about a shortage of fuel in the domestic market, and that the increase in gasoline prices is associated with an increase in supplies abroad.

– Isn’t that right?

– Only theoretically. Scheduled repairs at refineries have always been, are and will be, there is nothing extraordinary, because of this, the increase in gasoline prices has never outpaced annual inflation. This year, the projected corridor of price growth ranges from 4.5 to 6.5%, but if it rises to 7-8%, this will already be an unpleasant surprise, especially during the holiday season.

– Is it possible that in order to keep prices in the domestic market, there is only one measure – to ban the export of gasoline? But how will our oil industry survive this?

– There are two options for solving the problem: either the government should increase the fuel damper (subsidies) for oil refineries, or it will really have to limit the supply of fuel for export. Again, how will supplies be regulated – by raising export duties? You can’t just take and ban exports. Because contracts are signed, they must be fulfilled. We cannot cancel them, and oil refining will not agree with this either.

– What about the second option?

– Fuel damper adjustment can be played back. I don’t think there is a definitive solution to this issue. Some rumors are leaking to the press, but the government will make an informed decision. Last year, the damper adjustment was needed to streamline budget spending in order to reduce their growth. Now is the time to take another look at what will be more profitable for us: to increase subsidies to oil refineries or to limit the supply of gasoline for export?

There is an instruction from the President of the Russian Federation in the coming months to adjust the parameters of the tax base for the sale of oil and petroleum products. Therefore, decisions will be made here after weighing all the factors, comprehensively.

– Can it not happen that, having lost supplies abroad, oil refineries, on the contrary, want to compensate for their shortfall in income at the expense of domestic consumers, and gasoline prices will soar even higher?

– This option also cannot be ruled out, especially since the oil industry is already forced to cut production. In any case, the export restriction is a temporary measure, literally for a few weeks, at most for a month and a half. Otherwise, irreversible consequences will begin for the industry itself. So, if I had my way, I’d rather rewind with a damper.

– Does the budget now have the opportunity to pay refineries subsidies for gasoline for the population?

“The budgetary situation is starting to level off. Today, the Ministry of Finance announced that, according to the results of the first quarter, the budget deficit decreased from 2.4 trillion. rub. up to 2.1. So the flow path becomes more uniform. And the government may not have to regulate export duties.