The expert assessed the plans of Roskosmos to dramatically increase the orbital constellation

If we want Russia to remain among the leading space powers, it must annually produce and launch 250 satellites a year. This was stated on Friday by the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov in an interview with RIA-Novosti. It is possible to achieve such productivity, according to him, by 2025. Considering that today we produce only 15-17 satellites a year with a little, this statement is very ambitious. What Borisov himself thinks about this, and how experts generally assess our satellite potential, the MK correspondent understood.

The fact that Roskosmos is simply obliged to build up the Russian satellite constellation, Yuri Borisov, spoke at the end of last year, in December. “We have no other choice,” he said.

The fact is that in the current situation, in order to provide the country with high-quality space services – communications, navigation, remote sensing of the Earth – the number of spacecraft that we now have in different orbits – only 160 – is not enough.

In addition to the fact that we, in principle, do not pay enough attention and allocate funds for satellite constellations, we have not yet reorganized – we rely on heavy vehicles that we send to high orbits, from where the signal passes with a certain delay.

The whole world, or rather space powers, meanwhile launch large groups of small vehicles that fly much lower than ours. The small size makes them much cheaper and allows for fast stamping in large quantities. If 2-3 such satellites from the entire constellation, in which there are several hundred or several thousand of them, fail, consumers on Earth will not feel it.

Russian enterprises for the production of spacecraft have the potential to produce 42 satellites per year. But in fact they are releasing (here sanctions and the lack of an element base intervened) – 15-17 pieces each. This is very small, given that only one private company in the United States – SpaceX produces a thousand spacecraft a year, and China – 450 each.

In order to remain on the market, Russia must already today multiply its production. “Somewhere around the turn of 2025, reach 250 satellites a year, and by 2030, a satellite a day,” Borisov said.

We contacted Ivan Moiseev, an expert from the Space Policy Institute, and asked to evaluate the real set and capabilities of our modest satellite constellation.

– Our GLONASS satellite navigation constellation, for which the Reshetnev ISS is responsible, consists of 24 satellites. 2-3 times we change the failed devices with new ones, – says Moiseev. – As for Earth remote sensing satellites (ERS), there are very few of them, especially working ones. There are also communication satellites “Messenger”. We consider even the modules of the ISS to be satellites, although the same Americans do not call their modules satellites.

– Is quantity really so important, maybe our quality is taken?

– The coverage area depends on the number of satellites. Compare our total of 160 satellites with 3,000 satellites in orbit for one small private company, SpaceX. By the way, the United States also has military satellites, and constellations of observation satellites, by the way, are also private. For example, Planetlab has hundreds of 5kg observation satellites that provide a complete view of the Earth. Small companies, even unknown to the general public, do more than the huge infrastructure of Roscosmos. They, in particular, Planetlab, are already approaching the technology of online transmission of the video image of the Earth, which even ten years ago seemed fantastic. Musk, who is involved in communications, provides it to the entire territory of the globe with the help of his Starlink constellation, which has 3,000 satellites.

– Do we have an analogue of Musk’s satellites?

– His satellites from the Starlink group resemble our Messengers, but we only have about 20 of them.

– And these 20 pieces provide us with a connection?

– Our communication is provided by those very heavy satellites that are now “hanging” in geostationary orbit. These are several “Expresses” and others. If you live in Moscow, you have no problems with Internet access, but if you drive a hundred kilometers away, you will have a very expensive and very problematic Internet connection. Musk solved this problem, and not only for his country, but for the whole world. We also thought about launching a similar grouping “Sphere”, but, alas, so far there is only one apparatus from it in space, and even that one is just a demonstrator. Judging by the pace of launches that exists, it does not have high chances.