The European Commission will recommend starting negotiations with Ukraine on accession to the EU

The European Commission (EC) is close to making a decision to issue a formal recommendation to begin negotiations on Ukraine’s admission to the European Union (EU) immediately after Kiev fulfills the conditions put forward to it. As Bloomberg reports, citing documents, among the conditions are changes in legislation on minority issues, the fight against corruption, “de-oligarchization” and lobbying. This could be reflected on November 8th in the next EU report on the progress made by EU candidate countries. On November 6, Reuters also reported that Ukraine and Moldova could count on a positive recommendation.

Ukraine and Moldova became candidates for the European Union on June 23, 2022. It is reported that then Brussels put forward seven conditions for Kyiv to begin accession negotiations and the Ukrainians have now fulfilled four of them. The Spanish newspaper El Pais has similar information, which indicates that Ukraine has been credited for reforming the constitutional court and implementing measures to combat money laundering over the past six months. Prior to this, in June, the EC’s preliminary report on Ukraine’s readiness for accession negotiations was presented, which stated that Kyiv had fully fulfilled only two of the seven conditions – the adoption of laws on judicial reform and on media freedom.

El Pais writes that the most likely solution – to recommend starting negotiations with Ukraine – is also associated with “improving the situation with the rights of linguistic minorities,” allocating funds to fight corruption and progress in lobbying transparency. On November 4, EC President Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to Kyiv, said that Ukraine had fulfilled the plan by 90%. According to the EC, all this allows us to speak about sufficient progress in Kyiv to launch negotiations on accession to the EU from the beginning of 2024.

Following the EC’s recommendation, the decision will have to be approved by EU leaders at a summit in December 2023. If this happens, the EC will then begin the technical part of the work. In particular, a road map will be drawn up, and the level of compliance with the legislation of Ukraine and the EU will be checked. The candidate country must fulfill all its demands, conduct negotiations and reforms on 35 points – from the free movement of capital to the social sphere, from transport to the fight against corruption. Moreover, even in the most optimistic scenario, the process always takes many years, as, for example, was the case with Croatia, which went from candidate to member in nine years.

At the same time, countries such as Hungary and Romania may express their disagreement about the start of negotiations with Ukraine. Brussels found “a number of unresolved problems” in the Ukrainian law on national minorities in relation to the Hungarian, Romanian and Russian languages ​​in the press and education, TASS writes. And the adviser to the Prime Minister of Hungary on political issues, Balazs Orbán, in an interview with NOS, has already stated that Budapest may block the start of negotiations, since the rights of Hungarians are violated in Ukraine due to the education law, which obliges to provide at least 70% of teaching in the Ukrainian language. “Hungary’s position is crystal clear: as long as this law exists, there can be no discussions with Ukrainians about their integration into the European Union,” Balazs said.

The recommendation to begin negotiations with Ukraine on joining the EU is a symbolic shift, but, as practice shows, they can be carried on indefinitely, says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs.” The main question is what the EU countries really want from Ukraine, and depending on the answer to it, they will either really contribute to the European integration of Kyiv, or covertly prolong the process. In reality, it will be possible to consider the issue of Ukraine’s membership in the EU only after the end of hostilities, Lukyanov is sure. Now Brussels wants to demonstrate political support for Kyiv in its conflict with Russia, the outcome of which will also largely influence Ukraine’s future place in the EU’s orbit.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already signed amendments to the law on education, which was supposed to ease the situation of Hungarians in Transcarpathia, but in reality this problem remains, says Kirill Teremetsky, an expert at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. In general, the Hungarians still have three demands for Kiev: completely repeal the education law, remove OTR Bank from the Ukrainian blacklists, where it ended up for working in Russia, conclude a ceasefire agreement and move on to negotiations with Russia. Completing even one item on this list will likely satisfy Budapest. Theoretically, if Kyiv does not make concessions, then Hungary can independently block the decision to begin negotiations on accession to the EU, but in reality, most likely, the parties will come to a compromise as a result of bargaining.