The demography was divided in two

Of the 30 demographic forecast scenarios up to 2100 from the A. G. Vishnevsky Institute of Demography of the Higher School of Economics (HSE), 14 assume that the population of the Russian Federation will remain at the current level of approximately 146 million people or grow up to 217 million people. 16 scenarios predict a decline in the indicator, of which 11 are below 120 million people. The authors of the paper note that population growth in most cases is possible under scenarios that combine at least two of the three components: a high birth rate with a high life expectancy or migration rate. To maintain the number of inhabitants, it is necessary to achieve high performance in at least one of the three components.

Valery Yumaguzin and Maria Vinnik, employees of the A. G. Vishnevsky Institute of Demography at the Higher School of Economics, used the cohort-component method (when the indicator is calculated only for certain points in time at regular intervals, called the forecasting step), to forecast the size of the Russian population until the end of this century. A combination of different options (high, medium, low) of the three indicators that are the main ones in this case (fertility, life expectancy, migration dynamics) made it possible to create a demographic forecast from 30 options at once. As noted in the paper, although the long-term forecast has a “wide margin of uncertainty” and should be used with caution, the high and low scenarios act as boundaries within which variation in demographics is most likely.

As a starting point, the authors took the population as of January 1, 2021 – 146.2 million people, 2020 birth rates of 1.5 children per 1 woman, life expectancy of 66.49 years for men and 76.43 years for women and migration increase of 106.5 thousand people

The most optimistic demographic development of Russia describes a high scenario – it includes a significant increase in the birth rate (up to 2.5 children per 1 woman by 2100), life expectancy (up to 85.7 years for men and 90.5 years for women) and migration growth up to 430 thousand people annually. The middle option assumes a smaller increase in the birth rate (up to 1.85 children), life expectancy (80.3 and 86.7 years) and a migration increase of 250 thousand people. Finally, the low variant reflects pessimistic expectations: a decrease in the birth rate to 1.4 children already in 2023 and maintaining this level until the end of the century, a life expectancy of 74.9 years for men and 83.6 years for women, and an increase in the number of migrants at first by less than than 100 thousand people, and by the end of the period – by 60 thousand.

The resulting 30 scenarios can be divided into four groups. Five scenarios assume relative stability of the population in the range of 146-156 million people, nine – growth to 160 million and above. In 16 scenarios – a decrease below 140 million, including 11 – below 120 million. The largest predicted population by 2100 is 216.7 million people, the smallest is 67.4 million.

As the authors of the work note, population growth in most cases is possible under scenarios that combine at least two of the three indicators: a high birth rate with a high life expectancy or migration rate. Maintaining the current population in the long term requires achieving high levels in at least one of the three demographic components.

Note that the reality of 2022 (not taken into account in the forecast) somewhat reduces its accuracy. According to the census, as of January 1, 2023, the number of inhabitants of the Russian Federation amounted to 146.4 million, which is 200 thousand more than the base value for the forecast. In addition, although data on the population of the four annexed territories has not yet been published (as of January 1, 2022, over 8 million people lived there), it is obvious that the events that have occurred will significantly increase the number of residents of the Russian Federation, as was the case with Crimea. It can be said that such a turn of geopolitical events reduces the significance of the Demographic Policy Concept previously developed by the authorities.

Anastasia Manuylova